宏观点评20250512：关税超预期下调，股债市场怎么走？-20250512

Market Overview - The recent tariff reduction has led to a quick recovery in major indices, with market sentiment expected to rise in the short term due to improved risk appetite, particularly benefiting the export chain and technology sectors[3] - The market's focus is shifting from overseas changes to domestic economic fundamentals, with expectations of continued high growth in export data supported by other stabilizing policies[3] Liquidity and Investment Trends - Current market liquidity remains robust, with trading volumes around 1.2 trillion, indicating a relatively ample liquidity environment[4] - New regulations in the public fund industry are likely to guide institutional funds towards mainstream indices like CSI 300 and CSI 800, while attention on TMT sectors continues due to their growth potential[4] Trade Negotiations Impact - The recent US-China trade talks have resulted in significant concessions, with tariffs on Chinese goods expected to drop from a maximum of 145% to 30% by May 14, 2025, reducing export uncertainties[6] - The negotiations are driven by increasing political and economic pressures in the US, particularly ahead of the midterm elections in November 2025[6] Interest Rate Dynamics - Following the easing of tariff risks, the 10-year bond yield has fallen below 1.70%, with expectations of a short-term rise in rates due to improved risk sentiment from trade negotiations[7] - The monetary policy environment has shifted post the recent rate cuts, with expectations of a steepening yield curve as short-term rates may decline while long-term rates face upward pressure[8] Risk Factors - Potential risks include the possibility of fluctuating US tariff policies, pressure from Europe and other countries on China, and the execution efficiency of domestic policies[8]