总量“创”辩第102期：金融护航确定性

Macro Analysis - The current macro policy emphasizes "certainty in high-quality development" to address the uncertainties arising from external changes, particularly U.S. tariffs[3] - China maintains a stance of openness and stable growth, providing a "certainty" for capital markets, while the U.S. approach introduces "uncertainty" through protectionist measures[3] - The recent U.S. tariffs may impact loan demand, but timely monetary easing measures like rate cuts can help mitigate these effects[3] Market Strategy - The liquidity support from the "national team" is substantial, with ETF inflows reaching approximately CNY 167.32 billion since April 7, 2025[25] - Economic pressure in Q2 2025 is expected to be limited, with GDP growth forecasted to adjust from 4.8% to 4.5% due to tariff impacts[26] - The market is transitioning from a phase of stabilization to one where profit-making effects may amplify, despite a potential slowdown in the rate of increase[32] Monetary Policy - The recent dual reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates aims to stabilize growth, with a 0.1 percentage point cut in the policy rate expected to lower the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by a similar margin[36] - Structural monetary tools have seen a price reduction of 0.25%, which is estimated to save around CNY 150 billion in interest expenses[37] - The central bank's actions are designed to enhance liquidity and support the real economy, particularly in sectors like technology and consumption[30] Investment Recommendations - A balanced investment strategy focusing on small-cap growth and dividend stocks is advised, with attention to sectors such as technology and consumer services[33] - The report suggests maintaining high positions in the market while being cautious of potential volatility due to external factors[14]