Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-12 10:01Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On May 12, 2025, the RB2510 contract increased in price with reduced positions. Macroscopically, the high - level Sino - US economic and trade talks reached important consensus and achieved substantial progress. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly apparent demand for rebar decreased by 778,100 tons this period. Overall, rebar demand declined, but the easing of tariff issues boosted market confidence, and the positions of mainstream short - sellers decreased significantly. Technically, the weekly output of rebar decreased by 98,500 tons, the capacity utilization rate dropped to 49%, and the EAF steel开工率 continued to decline; the factory inventory increased by 151,100 tons, the social inventory decreased by 54,800 tons, and the total inventory changed from decreasing to increasing. The 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels. The operation strategy is to be bullish with oscillations and pay attention to risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,082 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the position volume was 2,180,461 lots, down 163,860 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 3,354 lots, up 86,397 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 21 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 168,703 tons, up 11,664 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 138 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,190 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,272 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,390 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,190 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 108 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 60 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 762 yuan/wet ton, up 9 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,225 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,950 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The domestic iron ore port inventory was 142.3871 million tons, down 637,700 tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 648,400 tons, down 20,100 tons [2] Industry Situation - The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.7075 million tons, down 41,200 tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 824,900 tons, up 20,800 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.64%, up 0.29%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 92.11%, up 0.08%. The rebar output of sample steel mills was 2.2353 million tons, down 98,500 tons; the rebar capacity utilization rate was 49%, down 2.16%. The rebar inventory in sample steel mills was 1.8827 million tons, up 151,100 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.6536 million tons, down 54,800 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 70.83%, down 1.05%. The domestic crude steel output was 92.84 million tons, up 16.87 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1.861 million tons, up 247,000 tons; the net steel export volume was 994,000 tons, down 2,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.96, up 0.17; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 4.20%, down 0.10%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 9.90%, up 0.10%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) was 5.80%, down 0.20%. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.13705 billion square meters, down 7.733 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 129.96 million square meters, down 63.83 million square meters; the commercial housing inventory for sale was 421.58 million square meters, up 10.16 million square meters [2] Industry News - The US promised to cancel 91% of the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods according to Executive Order No. 14259 on April 8, 2025, and Executive Order No. 14266 on April 9, 2025, and modify the 34% reciprocal tariffs imposed on Chinese goods according to Executive Order No. 14257 on April 2, 2025. Among them, the 24% tariff will be suspended for 90 days, and the remaining 10% tariff will be retained. Correspondingly, China will cancel 91% of the counter - tariffs imposed on US goods; for the 34% counter - tariffs against US reciprocal tariffs, the 24% tariff will be suspended for 90 days, and the remaining 10% tariff will be retained. China will also suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures against the US. In April 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, with the same decline as the previous month; the national ex - factory price index of industrial producers decreased by 2.7% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous month [2]