Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-12 10:01Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On May 12, V2509 fluctuated strongly, closing at 4,836 yuan/ton. The supply side saw a 1.01% week-on-week increase in PVC capacity utilization to 80.34%. The demand side had a 2.01% week-on-week increase in downstream PVC开工率 to 45.99%, with the pipe开工率 up 5% to 48.13% and the profile开工率 up 2.5% to 35.9%. PVC social inventory decreased by 0.41% week-on-week to 651,000 tons, maintaining a destocking trend with low inventory pressure. In May, the number of PVC parking capacities will gradually increase, potentially easing future supply pressure. After the holiday, the开工 of downstream product enterprises recovered, but orders were lackluster. The joint statement of the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks was released, with both sides only retaining the imposed 10% tariff, which is beneficial for the export of domestic PVC flooring. In terms of exports, the Indian market is affected by BIS certification, anti-dumping duties, and the rainy season, and the US tariff on Vietnam has not been alleviated, which may affect the export of Chinese PVC raw materials. In terms of costs, there is an expectation of a decline in calcium carbide prices, but power rationing uncertainties still affect future prices; the ethylene US dollar market is stagnant, and prices are expected to remain stable. In the short term, the easing of China-US trade tensions gives a strong expectation to V2509, with attention paid to the pressure around 4,900 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Closing price of PVC: 4,836 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; trading volume: 1,145,985 lots, up 439,095 lots; open interest: 1,064,312 lots, down 13,123 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -103,382 lots, up 9,170 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China market, the price of ethylene-based PVC was 5,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide-based PVC was 4,696.15 yuan/ton, down 0.77 yuan. In the South China market, the price of ethylene-based PVC was 4,980 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the price of calcium carbide-based PVC was 4,767.5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 785 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was -176 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2,823.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2,618 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR Far East intermediate price of VCM was 538 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 567 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars. The CFR Far East intermediate price of EDC was 162 US dollars/ton, down 34 US dollars; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 164 US dollars/ton, down 17 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly开工率 of PVC was 80.34%, up 1.01 percentage points; the开工率 of calcium carbide-based PVC was 81.33%, up 2.33 percentage points; the开工率 of ethylene-based PVC was 77.75%, down 2.44 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 409,800 tons, up 6,200 tons, with 367,400 tons in the East China region, up 5,600 tons, and 42,400 tons in the South China region, up 600 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The National Housing Climate Index was 93.96, up 0.16. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 129.9646 million square meters, up 63.8246 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.1370544 billion square meters, up 77.3344 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 110.0202 billion yuan, up 48.9131 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 14.1%, up 0.04 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 14.94%, up 0.14 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options of PVC was 18.85%, down 0.46 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On May 12, the joint statement of the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks was released, with both sides only retaining the imposed 10% tariff. - On May 12, the spot cash price of PVCSG5 in the Changzhou market remained stable compared to last Friday, at 4,590 - 4,730 yuan/ton. - From May 3 to 9, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 80.34%, a 1.01% increase from the previous period. As of May 8, the new (41 - company) sample statistics of PVC social inventory decreased by 0.41% to 651,000 tons, a 25.71% decrease year - on - year [3].