纺服、零售周报：制造端有望企稳回升，关注618大促催化（2025.12.19）-20250512

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the textile and apparel industry, suggesting a potential recovery in manufacturing and consumer demand, particularly with the upcoming 618 shopping festival [3][6]. Core Insights - Tariff expectations have eased, with U.S. Treasury Secretary indicating a desire to avoid decoupling from China in textiles and related goods, leading to a significant reduction in tariff-related anxiety [3]. - The manufacturing sector is expected to stabilize, with leading companies showing resilience and potential for market share growth due to their experience in navigating tariff changes [3][6]. - The upcoming 618 shopping festival is anticipated to boost domestic consumption, particularly benefiting beauty and personal care brands, which are expected to see structural opportunities [3][6]. Industry Data Tracking Retail Data - In March, the total retail sales in China grew by 5.9% year-on-year, with clothing and cosmetics showing growth rates of 3.6% and 1.1%, respectively [17][18]. - The growth in essential consumer goods such as food and beverages was notably higher, with food sales increasing by 13.8% [17][18]. Raw Material Prices - The Cotlook A index for cotton increased by 0.9% to 13,899, while the Chinese cotton price index decreased by 0.4% to 14,122 [19]. - Polyester filament prices saw increases, with POY, FDY, and DTY rising by 4.0%, 3.1%, and 2.4%, respectively [19][22]. Export Data - Vietnam's textile and apparel exports rose by 14.77% year-on-year in March, with footwear exports increasing by 15.77% [25][27]. - The revenue growth for various manufacturing companies in March varied, with notable increases for companies like Zhichuang and Yiqi at 40.1% and 24.8%, respectively [28].