钢铁行业周报：铁水日产高位微增，关注淡季需求支撑-20250512

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a slight increase in daily molten iron production, indicating a focus on seasonal demand support during the off-peak period [1] - The industry is expected to maintain stability supported by the real estate sector and manufacturing [8] - The report emphasizes the necessity for industry consolidation and the exit of outdated capacity, leading to an increase in industry concentration and a shift towards high-quality product development [8] Supply Side - As of May 9, 2025, the total output of five major steel products was 8.7417 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.08% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.31% [4][21] - The average daily molten iron production of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4564 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.09% and a year-on-year increase of 4.75% [4][21] - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces was 92.09%, up 0.09 percentage points week-on-week and up 4.42 percentage points year-on-year [4][21] Demand Side - The total consumption of five major steel products was 8.4520 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 12.94% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.14% [4][27] - The daily transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 94,300 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.57% and a year-on-year decrease of 26.10% [4][27] - Monthly steel exports totaled 10.4563 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 30.12% and a year-on-year increase of 5.75% [4][27] Inventory - As of May 9, 2025, the total social inventory of five major steel products was 10.3304 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.91% and a year-on-year decrease of 25.64% [4][43] - The total factory inventory was 4.4303 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.63% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.57% [4][43] Cost - As of May 9, 2025, the price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 758.25 RMB/wet ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.67% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.50% [4][66] - The comprehensive absolute price index for scrap steel was 2,426.44 RMB/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.05% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.09% [4][66] Price - As of May 9, 2025, the Mysteel absolute price index for ordinary steel was 3,453.7 RMB/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.85% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.76% [4][71] - The Mysteel absolute price index for special steel was 9,344.18 RMB/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.09% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.54% [4][71]