锂电池产业链2024年和2025Q1业绩综述：2024年整体业绩下滑，2025Q1盈利大幅改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the lithium battery industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector despite anticipated performance declines in 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The overall performance of the lithium battery industry is expected to decline in 2024, with a significant improvement in profitability anticipated in Q1 2025 [1][4]. - The lithium battery segment is the only part of the industry projected to see a year-on-year increase in net profit, driven by a reduction in upstream material costs [4][30]. - The report highlights a shift in profitability towards the battery segment, with its contribution to net profit rising to 98.11% in 2024 [4][29]. Summary by Sections 1. 2024: Overall Industry Performance Decline - The lithium battery industry is projected to generate revenue of CNY 967.99 billion in 2024, a decrease of 9.92% year-on-year, with net profit expected to be CNY 59.21 billion, down 11.09% [4][13]. - The battery segment is the only area expected to see a net profit increase of 17.25%, while other segments face significant declines [4][30]. - Capital expenditures are anticipated to decrease by 17.88%, reflecting a slowdown in capacity expansion across the industry [4][53]. 2. Q1 2025: Significant Profitability Improvement - In Q1 2025, the industry is expected to achieve revenue of CNY 235.37 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.62% [4][58]. - Net profit for Q1 2025 is projected at CNY 18.34 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.44% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 63.06% [4][58]. - Most segments, except for separators and lithium battery equipment, are expected to show significant improvements in net profit both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [4][58]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on battery segments with strong performance support, leading material companies showing marginal improvements, and segments benefiting from solid-state battery advancements [4][58]. - Key investment targets include companies such as CATL, EVE Energy, and others within the solid-state battery supply chain [4][58].