Eddid Financial·2025-05-12 11:09Market Sentiment - The latest US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) is reported at 618 points, with a 7-day moving average of 556 points, indicating an overall downward trend [3][7][8] - The sentiment indicator from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) shows that 51.5% of retail investors are bearish on the stock market, while 29.4% are bullish, resulting in a bullish-to-bearish ratio of 0.57, an increase from the previous value of 0.35 [3][9] - The Fear and Greed Index improved rapidly last week, closing at 62 points, moving from 'neutral' to 'greed', and remained in the 'greed' zone throughout the week [3][10] Global Market Overview - The global equity market experienced a weekly decline of 0.3%, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets, which saw a decline of 0.3% [12] - Bitcoin showed exceptional performance with a weekly increase of 6.3%, making it the best-performing asset class for the week, while gold rose by 2.6% [12] US Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index declined by 0.5% for the week, while the seven major tech stocks fell by 0.7%, and the Golden Dragon Index weakened with a 1.5% drop [12][13] - In terms of investment style, small-cap value stocks outperformed large-cap value stocks, and large-cap growth stocks outperformed small-cap growth stocks [12][13] Industry Performance - Among the 36 secondary industries in the US stock market, 18 showed gains, with coal, electrical equipment, and textile apparel among the top performers [15] - A total of 21 secondary industries outperformed the S&P 500 index, which declined by 0.5% [15] Valuation Metrics - As of now, 360 S&P 500 companies have reported Q1 earnings, with 76% (274 companies) exceeding EPS expectations, slightly above the 10-year average of 75% [3] - The current S&P 500 PE (TTM) is at 25.3 times, slightly above the 10-year average of 24.5 times, placing it in the 70th percentile over the past decade [3][10] - The forward PE for the S&P 500 decreased slightly from approximately 21.7 times to 21.6 times, while forward EPS fell from $262.4 to $261.7, a decline of about 0.3% [3][10] Strategy Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates and balance sheet reduction in May, aligning with expectations, and emphasized the significant uncertainty of tariff policies on economic growth and inflation [3] - The report suggests that the worst of tariff uncertainty has passed, with expectations of more countries gradually signing trade agreements with the US [3] - The S&P 500 valuation is not considered high, and earnings are performing well, leading to a more optimistic outlook for the market [3]