农业周报：粮价继续上涨，畜禽等待拐点-20250512

Investment Rating - The overall industry investment rating is "Positive" for planting, livestock, and agricultural product processing sectors, while "Neutral" for forestry and fishery sectors [2]. Core Viewpoints - Recent grain price increases indicate a potential bottoming out of the planting industry chain. Livestock prices remain low, with production capacity expected to decline from high levels. The importance of domestic agricultural supply has been highlighted by tariff countermeasures, suggesting a favorable policy environment for industry development [20][23]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Livestock Industry Chain - Pork: Production capacity growth has stagnated, with the sector's valuation at a historical low, presenting long-term investment opportunities. The average price of live pigs is 14.82 CNY/kg, down 0.02 CNY from last week. The demand is expected to weaken in the short term, leading to a potential decline in pork prices [5][20][21]. - Poultry: Chicken prices are fluctuating, with the average price for white feather broilers at 3.75 CNY/jin, up 0.02 CNY from last week. The industry faces high production levels, but potential price increases may occur due to reduced imports following tariff measures [9][20][21]. - Yellow Chicken: Prices are expected to rise as supply tightens and consumption recovers, with current prices around 11.2 CNY/kg, reflecting a slight increase [10][23]. - Animal Health: The industry shows signs of recovery, with improved performance in Q1. The introduction of new vaccines is expected to drive growth in the sector [11][23]. 2. Planting Industry Chain - Seed Industry: The focus on food security is leading to improved policies for the seed industry, with expectations for transgenic technology to accelerate. Major companies are at a valuation low, indicating long-term investment potential [12][24]. - Grain Prices: Recent increases in grain prices, with corn at 2327 CNY/ton and wheat at 2462 CNY/ton, suggest investment opportunities in the sector. A significant decrease in grain imports has been noted, with expectations for continued price support from policy measures [13][24]. 3. Recommended Companies and Ratings - Companies with "Buy" Ratings: Zhongchong Co., Mu Yuan Co., and Su Kan Agricultural Development are highlighted as strong investment opportunities [3][52].