礼来公司（LLY.N,LLY UN）：Zepbound与Wegovy的SURMOUNT-5肥胖症研究发布要点

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Eli Lilly & Co. with a price target of $1,133.00, reflecting a strong growth outlook for the company [5]. Core Insights - The SURMOUNT-5 Phase 3 obesity trial data indicates that Zepbound (Tirzepatide) outperformed Wegovy (Semaglutide) in terms of weight reduction, with a 20.2% reduction from baseline at 72 weeks compared to 13.7% for Wegovy [2]. - Zepbound patients were significantly more likely to achieve substantial weight loss milestones, being 2.8 times more likely to lose at least 30% of their body weight compared to Wegovy patients [2]. - The trial also showed that Zepbound had a lower incidence of gastrointestinal adverse events leading to treatment discontinuation compared to Wegovy, although injection-site reactions were more common with Zepbound [1][2]. Summary by Sections Trial Results - In the SURMOUNT-5 trial, 89.3% of Zepbound participants received at least one 15mg dose, while 92.8% of Wegovy participants received at least one 2.4mg dose [1]. - The rates of nausea and diarrhea were similar in both groups, but Zepbound had a lower vomiting rate (15% vs. 21%) [1]. Weight Reduction - The percent change from baseline in body weight at 72 weeks was 20.2% for Zepbound versus 13.7% for Wegovy [2]. - Zepbound patients were 1.3x to 2x more likely to achieve weight reductions of at least 10%, 15%, 20%, and 25% compared to Wegovy patients [2]. Cardiometabolic Improvements - Greater weight reduction with both treatments led to improvements in cardiometabolic risk factors, including blood pressure and glycemia, with clinically relevant mean differences between Zepbound and Wegovy [3][7]. Market Context - The SURMOUNT-5 data may help Eli Lilly maintain market share in the face of potential impacts from the IRA on Semaglutide in 2027 and its eventual loss of exclusivity in 2032 [9].