银河期货航运日报-20250512

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Container Shipping: The outcome of the China-US tariff negotiation exceeded market expectations, and the subsequent market is expected to rebound. The spot freight rate bottom is gradually emerging, and the short - term market is expected to continue to rebound. However, the long - term outlook is still affected by the trade war [4][5][6]. - Dry Bulk Shipping: The overall demand in the international dry bulk shipping market was weak last week, and freight rates were under pressure. The substantial progress in the China - US economic and trade talks may have a positive impact on market sentiment and support the freight rate market [17][18]. - Oil Shipping: The BDTI is maintaining a volatile trend. OPEC+ increasing production may increase the global seaborne demand for crude oil. The concentrated outflow of goods in late April and early May supported the VLCC market, and the impact of the goods release rhythm on freight rates needs further attention [22]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping - Futures Market: On May 12, 2025, all container shipping futures contracts except EC2604 reached the daily limit. For example, EC2506 closed at 1466.2 points, up 17.31% [2]. - Price Difference Structure: The price differences between different contracts showed various changes, such as EC06 - EC08 at - 328, down 48.8 [2]. - Container Freight Rates: SCFIS European Line was at 1302.62 points, down 5.54% week - on - week and 48.15% year - on - year; SCFIS US West Line was at 1455.31 points, up 10.19% week - on - week and down 41.97% year - on - year [2]. - Fuel Costs: WTI crude oil near - month was at $60.63 per barrel, up 1.05% week - on - week and down 23.33% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month was at $63.42 per barrel, up 1.10% week - on - week and down 24.1% year - on - year [2]. - Trading Strategies: For the short - term, adopt a long - at - dips strategy for the near - month contracts 06 and 08. Hold the 8 - 10 and 6 - 10 positive spreads and the 10 - 12 negative spread [6][7]. Dry Bulk Shipping - Freight Rate Index: On May 9, the BDI decreased by 1.29% to 1299 points, the BCI decreased by 2.45% to 1709 points, the BPI decreased by 0.73% to 1353 points, and the BSI increased by 0.10% to 969 points [15][16]. - Spot Freight Rates: On May 9, the freight rate of the Brazilian Tubarao - Qingdao iron ore route (BCI - C3) was $18.22 per ton, down 1.03% week - on - week; the freight rate of the Western Australia - Qingdao route (BCI - C5) was $7.49 per ton, down 2.60% week - on - week [17]. - Industry News: The substantial progress in the China - US economic and trade talks may support the market. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased, and the Panama Canal will conduct maintenance work, affecting the transportation capacity of Panamax ships [18][19]. Oil Shipping - Freight Rate Index: On May 9, the BDTI was at 995, down 1% week - on - week and 13.48% year - on - year; the BCTI was at 573, up 0.35% week - on - week and down 43.55% year - on - year [20][22]. - Average Earnings: The average earnings of VLCCs were $44031 per day, down 13% week - on - week and 20.86% year - on - year; the average earnings of Suezmax tankers were $46548 per day, down 14.44% week - on - week and 9.39% year - on - year [20]. - Industry News: Trump's visit to the Middle East may not achieve the goal of normalizing Saudi - Israeli relations. Goldman Sachs expects non - US shale oil supply to increase, and Saudi Aramco's Q1 net income decreased [23][24]. Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including SCFIS and SCFI index charts, container shipping freight rate charts, dry bulk shipping index charts, oil shipping index charts, and tanker earnings charts, which visually display the historical trends of relevant data [28][30][38].