正信期货生猪周报2025-5-12：供需趋平衡，现货偏震荡-20250512

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for the pig industry is "oscillating," with a "neutral" rating for supply, a "bearish" rating for demand, a "neutral" rating for profit, and a "bullish" rating for price and volume [3] Core Viewpoints - The pig industry may enter a pressure cycle in 2025, and prices will face long - term downward pressure, but there may be short - term support for pig prices in the second quarter due to disease disturbances and breeding sentiment [3] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - This week, the basis of live pigs increased slightly, and the futures were in a slight discount state, limiting the downward space. The spread between near - and far - term live pig futures increased slightly and was at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The net short positions of institutional investors in the main live pig futures contract were decreasing [3] Supply Analysis - The average weight of commercial pig sales of sample breeding enterprises this week was basically flat, the spread between standard and fat pigs widened slightly, and the proportion of large pigs continued to increase. Since this year, the spread between near - and far - term live pig futures has remained high, and the term structure is almost horizontal, reflecting the market's balanced expectation of the supply - demand relationship. In the long - term, the hedging behavior dominated by funds in the pig industry strengthens the linkage between futures and spot, and the pricing of long - term futures contracts mainly revolves around costs. The near - term contracts have significantly enhanced resistance to decline due to disease disturbances and breeding sentiment [3] Demand Analysis - This week, slaughter orders decreased slightly, slaughter profits increased slightly, the fresh meat efficiency was basically flat, and the frozen product inventory rebounded slightly and was at a low level in the same period of the past four years. After the May Day holiday, pork purchases and sales returned to rationality, the purchasing and sales enthusiasm in cities decreased, orders of mainstream slaughtering enterprises decreased, and the operating rate gradually declined [3] Profit Analysis - The self - breeding and self - raising breeding profit is around the break - even point, and the pig - grain ratio is significantly higher than the average level in the same period of the past four years. In 2024, Muyuan Co., Ltd. had a net profit of 17.881 billion yuan, ranking first, with a year - on - year increase of 519.42%. In 2024, Muyuan significantly reduced the pig breeding cost from 15.8 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 13 yuan/kg in December, with an average annual breeding cost of about 14 yuan/kg. In 2025, Muyuan further reduced the cost, and the full cost of pig breeding in March has dropped to 12.5 yuan/kg, with a target of reducing the average annual cost to 12 yuan/kg in 2025 [3]