银河期货花生日报-20250512

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The supply of peanuts is still abundant due to the large production in 2024 and weak downstream demand, so the peanut price is expected to be relatively stable in the short term. The market is currently trading based on the oil mill purchase price and rhythm. Recently, the peanut price has remained stable, and the oil mill's theoretical profit from peanut crushing is in the black. The price of peanut 10 continues to rise, and there are still many uncertainties such as weather as it trades new crops, especially considering the recent drought in Henan and other places [5][9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Data - Futures Market: PK504 closed at 8100, up 68 (0.84%) with a trading volume of 12 (up 33.33%) and an open interest of 42 (up 16.67%); PK510 closed at 8222, up 116 (1.41%) with a trading volume of 62,563 (up 96.51%) and an open interest of 87,229 (up 7.11%); PK601 closed at 8120, up 66 (0.81%) with a trading volume of 430 (up 175.64%) and an open interest of 2,584 (up 1.45%) [3]. - Spot Market: The price of peanuts in Henan slightly increased, while that in the Northeast remained stable. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.1 yuan/jin, and that in Changtu, Liaoning was also 4.1 yuan/jin. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 4.05 - 4.2 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin. The price in Junan, Shandong was 3.95 yuan/jin. The price of imported Sudan refined peanuts was 7950 yuan/ton. The purchase price of peanut oil mills was stable, with the mainstream transaction price at 7350 - 7650 yuan/ton and the theoretical break - even price at 8110 yuan/ton. The price of domestic first - class ordinary peanut oil was stable at 15000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, and the price of small - squeezed fragrant peanut oil was 17000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [3][5]. - By - product Market: The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal decreased to 3030 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. The unit protein price difference between soybean meal and peanut meal was relatively high, and the short - term peanut meal was weak, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3300 yuan/ton [8]. - Import Price: The price of imported Sudan peanuts was 7950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - Spread: PK01 - PK04 spread was 20, down 2; PK04 - PK10 spread was - 122, down 48; PK10 - PK01 spread was 102, up 50 [3]. 2. Market Analysis - The price of peanuts in Henan slightly increased, and that in the Northeast remained stable. It is expected that the peanut spot will be relatively stable in the short term. The purchase price of peanut oil mills was stable, and the prices of peanut oil and soybean oil increased [5]. 3. Trading Strategies - Single - side Strategy: Short - term long on peanut 10 at low prices with a range - bound trading mindset [10]. - Spread Strategy: Take long positions in the peanut 10 - 1 spread at low prices [11]. - Option Strategy: Sell pk510 - p - 7800 [12]. 4. Related Diagrams - The report includes diagrams showing the price of Shandong peanut spot, peanut oil mill's crushing profit, peanut oil price, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between peanut 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between peanut 3 - 10 contracts [14][18][22].