燃料油日报-20250512

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The near - end high - sulfur supply in the Asian market remains abundant, with high inventories of high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore. However, there is still a medium - term supply gap due to geopolitical and sanctions affecting exports from Russia and the Middle East. High - sulfur seasonal power generation demand is starting to increase [7]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil spot prices are fluctuating. Supply is continuously rising while downstream demand is weak. The return of external low - sulfur raw material supply and increased production in some regions are contributing to the supply increase [7]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Related Data - Prices and Changes: On May 12, 2025, the FU main contract was at 2996, up 47 from May 9; the LU main contract was at 3518, up 46 from May 9. The LU - FU main contract spread was 522, down 1 from May 9 [4]. - Positions and Changes: FU main contract positions were 14.3 million hands, down 0.6 million hands from May 9; LU main contract positions were 6.4 million hands, down 0.2 million hands from May 9 [4]. - Warehouse Receipts and Changes: FU high - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts were 44,390 tons, down 6730 tons from May 9; LU low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts were 26,270 tons, down 15,980 tons from May 9 [4][7]. Second Part: Market Analysis - Important News: The RFCC of Dangote Refinery has restarted, and BP Rotterdam Refinery plans to shut down one of its two CDU units for maintenance in May. Intermittent supply may increase price fluctuations, and the success of Dangote's production increase will affect the EBOB spread in Q3 2025 [6]. - Market Judgment: High - sulfur fuel oil: Supply is abundant in the short - term but has a medium - term gap. Demand for power generation is increasing. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Supply is rising while demand is weak, and the return of external supply and increased production in some regions are factors [7]. Third Part: Related Attachments - The report includes six graphs showing data such as Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur spot premiums, high - and low - sulfur price differentials, and fuel oil cracking spreads. The data sources are Galaxy Futures and Reuters [9].