供应端变化有限，盘面震荡运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international soybean market has limited near - term pressure, with good US soybean export performance and reduced selling pressure in Brazil. However, the long - term supply is expected to be relatively loose due to high projected US soybean ending stocks and continued pressure in the South American market. - In the domestic market, the recent tight supply situation is gradually improving as the oil mill operating rate increases and soybean arrivals become clearer. - The macro - environment has a complex and limited impact on soybean meal, as China still imposes tariffs on US soybeans. - The soybean meal futures market is expected to face some pressure, while the rapeseed meal market may see weakening demand and limited supply - side benefits[5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Quotes - The US soybean futures market showed a strong trend due to improved macro - conditions after China - US talks. The domestic futures market was mainly in shock, with soybean meal outperforming rapeseed meal. - For soybean meal futures, the contract 0105 closed at 2955, down 6; contract 09 at 2919, down 1. For rapeseed meal futures, contract 01 closed at 2330, down 15; contract 05 at 2485, up 1; contract 09 at 2563, down 2. - The basis of soybean meal in Tianjin was 420, up 40; in Dongguan, it was 220, down 130; in Zhangjiagang, it was 200, up 10; in Rizhao, it was 190, up 30. The basis of rapeseed meal in Nantong was - 63, up 42; in Guangdong, it was - 113, down 8; in Guangxi, it was - 123, down 8. - The 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal was - 132, up 28; the 9 - 1 spread was - 36, up 5; the 1 - 5 spread was 168, down 33. The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal was - 78, up 3; the 9 - 1 spread was 233, up 13; the 1 - 5 spread was - 155, down 16. - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 852, down 18; between soybean meal and sunflower meal was 1039, down 111; between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal was 117, down 3[4]. Fundamental Analysis - International: As of the week ending May 1, US soybean export sales were 376,700 tons. The March crushing data was average, but overall demand was good. Brazil's soybean harvest progress as of May 3 was 97.7%, higher than last year and the five - year average. The long - term US soybean ending stocks are expected to remain high due to large export pressure on new crops, and the South American market will continue to face pressure. - Domestic: As of May 9, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.846 million tons, with an operating rate of 51.89%. Soybean inventory was 5.3491 million tons, up 602,700 tons (12.7%) from last week and 1.1634 million tons (27.79%) from last year. Soybean meal inventory was 101,200 tons, up 19,100 tons (23.26%) from last week but down 458,000 tons (81.9%) from last year. The rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 159,500 tons, with an operating rate of 42.51%. Rapeseed inventory was 200,000 tons, down 68,000 tons from last week, and rapeseed meal inventory was 36,000 tons, up 21,500 tons from last week[5][6]. Macro - environment The postponement and reduction of tariffs by China and the US have complex and limited impacts on soybean meal, as China still imposes tariffs on US soybeans[6]. Logic Analysis - Soybean meal: With the increase in the operating rate of domestic oil mills, the supply shortage is alleviated. The upcoming monthly supply - demand report may be a focus, but the pricing center is still in South America, so the market may face pressure. - Rapeseed meal: The market's focus is on future supply. With the decline in soybean meal prices, rapeseed meal demand may weaken, and supply - side benefits may be limited. The inter - monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile[7]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Options: Adopt a strategy of selling wide straddles[8]. Soybean Crushing Profit - For soybeans from Argentina, the May shipment had a crushing profit of 75.10; June shipment, 11.48; July shipment, - 76.77. - For soybeans from Brazil, the June shipment had a crushing profit of 102.52; July shipment, 82.62; August shipment, 15.34[9].