晶圆代工龙头发布业绩，短期波动不扰长期逻辑

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - Short-term fluctuations do not affect the long-term growth logic of the industry, with a gradual recovery in downstream demand expected to reflect in performance by 2026, particularly under the "China for China" strategy [3][26] - In Q1 2025, SMIC reported revenue of $2.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.4%, while gross margin was 22.5%, up 8.8 percentage points year-on-year [7][9] - Hua Hong Semiconductor achieved revenue of $540 million in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, with a gross margin of 9.2% [13][17] - TSMC reported record revenue of NT$349.57 billion in April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 48.1%, indicating strong recovery in downstream demand [21][26] Summary by Sections SMIC - Q1 2025 revenue was $2.25 billion, with a gross margin of 22.5% and a net profit of $188 million, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase [7][8] - The company expects Q2 2025 revenue to decline by 4% to 6%, with a gross margin forecast of 18% to 20% [9][26] - Production capacity increased to 973,000 wafers per month, with a utilization rate of 89.6% [9][10] Hua Hong Semiconductor - Q1 2025 revenue was $540 million, with a gross margin of 9.2% and a net profit of $3.75 million, despite a significant year-on-year decline in net profit [13][14] - The company anticipates Q2 2025 revenue between $550 million and $570 million, with a gross margin forecast of 7% to 9% [13][17] - Production capacity reached 413,000 wafers per month, maintaining a high utilization rate of 102.7% [17][19] TSMC - TSMC's April 2025 revenue reached NT$349.57 billion, marking a historical monthly high and a year-on-year increase of 48.1% [21][26] - The company projects Q2 2025 revenue between $28.4 billion and $29.2 billion, with a gross margin forecast of 57% to 59% [21][26] - The strong revenue growth reflects a clear recovery in downstream demand and a trend of inventory replenishment in the supply chain [21][26]