短期高位运行，中期下跌

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper is rated as high-level consolidation in the short term and bearish in the medium term [1] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, minor positive factors support the high-level consolidation of copper prices; in the medium term, the weakening fundamentals combined with a generally pessimistic macro - environment will cause the center of gravity of Shanghai copper to decline [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Related Information - In April, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the domestic market reached 905,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 33.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.7%. From January to April, the cumulative retail sales were 3.324 million units, a growth of 35.7%. In April, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the overall domestic passenger vehicles was 51.5%, 7 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] 3.2 Market Conditions - As of the close on May 9th, the weekly changes were as follows: Shanghai copper closed at 77,450 yuan/ton (+0.30%), London copper closed at $9,445.5/ton (+0.15%), New York copper closed at $4.6045/pound (-1.05%), the premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 80 yuan/ton, LME (0 - 3) reached $49.19/ton. The social inventory was 120,100 tons, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 19,200 tons, with continuous inventory reduction [1] 3.3 News - The Sino - US talks have ended and reached important consensus, which may bring short - term positive sentiment to the market [2] 3.4 Trading Logic - Macro - aspect: In the short term, there are positive factors. The market expects the tariff issue to be alleviated, and domestic policies strongly support consumption, boosting market confidence. In the medium and long term, the global economic situation is not optimistic, and the US debt problem remains a challenge [3] - Fundamentals: The supply is currently loose, with the cumulative output of smelters from January to April increasing by 10.63% year - on - year and stable copper ore imports. However, the output in April was basically the same as that in March, and there will be concentrated maintenance later, so the supply increase is expected to decline. The processing fee for imported copper ore by smelters has continuously dropped to -$43.11/ton dry. If it touches the pressure line of smelters, it may trigger passive production cuts. The demand for copper rods, copper tubes, etc. is currently supported, but the operating rate has shown a downward trend, the inventory reduction speed has slowed down, and the premium of Shanghai copper has gradually narrowed [3] - Comex - lme Spread: It has shrunk to $705.5/ton and may drive the single - side copper price to decline [3] 3.5 Strategy Suggestion - Pay attention to the strategy of buying put options in the future [4]