正信期货鸡蛋周报2025-5-12：利润出现亏损，淘鸡意愿提升-20250512

Report Industry Investment Rating - The weekly rating for egg supply is bearish, demand is neutral, profit is bullish, price and volume is neutral, and the strategy is volatile [3] Core Viewpoints - The current situation is similar to that in the first half of 2020 based on the analysis of the egg fundamental cycle. Before the production capacity is cleared due to losses in breeding profits, the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength in egg futures is expected to continue. It is recommended to focus on the arbitrage strategy of selling near - term contracts and buying long - term contracts [3] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - In the spot price section, it involves the comparison between main production area prices and main sales area prices [5][7] - Regarding egg basis, it focuses on the basis of each egg futures contract [8][9] - For egg spreads, it analyzes the spreads of each egg futures contract [11][12] - In terms of futures institutional net positions, it shows the long - short difference and long - short ratio of institutional positions in the July egg futures contract [14][16] Supply Analysis - In the egg - laying hen inventory part, it includes egg - laying hen inventory and its structure [17][18] - Regarding the culling situation, it covers culling prices and the average culling age [19][20] - For the replenishment situation, it involves the price of commercial egg - laying chicks and the utilization rate of breeding eggs [22][23] - In the large - and small - sized egg situation, it includes the prices of large - and small - sized eggs and the seasonal chart of their price differences [24][25] Demand Analysis - In the shipment and sales volume part, it focuses on the sales volume in main sales areas and the shipment volume in main production areas [27][29] - Regarding inventory, it includes production - link inventory and circulation - link inventory [30][31] - For substitutes, it shows the seasonal charts of the price ratios between eggs and pork, and between eggs and vegetables [32][33] Profit Analysis - In the breeding profit part, it compares current and expected profits and shows the comprehensive breeding profit of egg - laying hens [34][36] - Regarding the egg - feed price ratio, it includes the egg - feed price ratio and its equilibrium point, as well as the seasonal chart of the egg - feed price ratio [37][38]