Group 1 - The original market expectation indicates that the execution of Trump's policies has significantly deviated from the Milan report's assumptions, suggesting a necessary adjustment in Trump's policies and the initiation of negotiations between China and the US [2] - Following the Geneva trade talks, the expectation is that the additional tariffs imposed after April 2 will be reduced to 10%, leading to a potential recovery in China's economic resilience in Q2 2025, with a possibility of improved profitability in H2 2025 if domestic stimulus policies remain strong [2][2] - The report highlights that the adjustment in tariffs directly benefits export chain enterprises, with a potential for a pulse-like recovery in the export chain, particularly for those with previously low expectations [2][2] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the long-term trends in domestic technology development and risk prevention should not be altered by the temporary easing of US-China tensions, indicating a strategic focus on sectors like AI, national defense, and robotics [2][2] - Asset prices are influenced by timely domestic policies that support market expectations, with A-shares currently oscillating within a high range since September 24, 2024, and a potential upward adjustment in the market's central tendency [2][2] - The report maintains a cautious outlook for Q2 2025, suggesting that while there are conditions for a more optimistic view in H2 2025 and 2026, ongoing concerns about disturbances remain, and the fundamental improvement in A-share performance is yet to materialize [2][2]
申万宏源策略中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明点评:A股供需格局展望重回临界值
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-05-12 12:13