钢材期货周度报告：库存开始累积，钢价震荡偏弱-20250512

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, steel prices fluctuated weakly, with the average national rebar price decreasing by 40 yuan/ton week-on-week. After the holiday, boosted by macro - policies, the market's sentiment to push up prices turned stronger, but the terminal demand followed up insufficiently, and merchants faced greater pressure to sell goods. Subsequently, market prices across the country declined. Next week, as billet orders weakened, steel mills' willingness to switch production to rebar increased, while demand was not sustainable, inventory destocking slowed down, and fundamental pressure gradually emerged. In the later stage, the spot price of finished products will face pressure, and short - term steel prices are expected to show a weak and fluctuating trend [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - Steel prices fluctuated weakly this week, with the average national rebar price decreasing by 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. After the holiday, the market's sentiment to push up prices was strong due to macro - policies, but the terminal demand was insufficient, and prices dropped. Next week, billet orders are weak, steel mills are more willing to produce rebar, demand is poor, inventory destocking slows, and fundamental pressure appears [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations, including the central bank's measures such as reducing the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points and the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points; the financial regulatory authority's eight incremental policies; and the CSRC's support for Central Huijin and reform policies for the Sci - tech Innovation Board and ChiNext [6]. - In April, the year - on - year CPI decreased by 0.1%, and the PPI decreased by 2.7%. From January to April, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 14.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%, with exports increasing by 7.5% and imports decreasing by 4.2% [7]. - In late April 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel decreased by 1.2% month - on - month, pig iron decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, and steel increased by 7.6% month - on - month. Estimated national daily production of crude steel decreased by 1.2% month - on - month, pig iron decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, and steel increased by 1.2% month - on - month [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel's survey of 237 mainstream traders, the average daily building materials trading volume from Tuesday to Friday this week was 10.27 tons, lower than last week's 11.23 tons. The spot market price was poor, and due to more rain in East China and the South, the overall trading performance was sluggish [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - After the May Day holiday, there was a demand replenishment window, and the spot market was relatively resistant to decline. However, as demand enters the seasonal off - season and hot metal production may peak and decline, the later stage may face a situation of "weak reality and weak expectation", and the spot price of finished products will be under pressure. Short - term steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. - From the disk perspective, black series varieties declined, and rebar and hot - rolled coils returned to last year's low levels. The rebar main contract closed at 3022, down 50 points on the day and 74 points on the week. The latest position was 2344000 lots, an increase of 432000 lots compared to the pre - holiday closing. The short - selling momentum was strong. The weekly price fell below the lower edge of the one - month shock range, and the price is approaching the 3000 mark. The reference operating range next week is 2950 - 3100. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, combine shorting at high prices with range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, mainly wait and see; for steel profits, mainly wait and see; for option strategies, use a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [30].