PTA：短期偏多

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PTA industry is short - term bullish [2] Core Viewpoints - The PXN spread repair has driven the recovery of the load rate of Asian PX plants. The current phased low point of PX plant load has emerged, and it is less likely to return to the previous low - load operation state this year. The short - term rebound is due to the concentrated maintenance of PX and PTA, which is a valuation repair. In the long term, attention should be paid to terminal orders and Sino - US trade negotiations, and whether the demand can achieve substantial repair remains to be verified. Short - term participation is recommended [2][15] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The PTA09 contract was recommended for low - position long positions. The weekly opening price of the 09 contract was 4390, the highest was 4590, the lowest was 4328, and the closing price was 4582, with a weekly increase of 148 or 3.34% [3] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Maintenance Supports a Small Rebound in PXN - In terms of PX capacity, the commissioning of new domestic PX capacity in 2024 is gradually coming to an end. Only Yulongdao has a plan to put into operation a new 3 million - ton capacity in 2024, and there is no expectation of new project launch in 2025. From January to April 2025, the domestic PX output was 12.28 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%; from January to March 2025, the domestic PX imports were 2.248 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. The current PXCFR is reported at $777/ton, and PX - N is $223/ton; the PTA in East China is reported at 4720 yuan/ton, and the PTA cash - flow cost is 4354 yuan/ton. The load of the Chinese PX industry increased by 5.6% to 78.6%, and some plants increased their loads due to improved production efficiency. Overseas, South Korea's Daesan Hanwha Total slightly reduced its load in May, and Japan's Idemitsu's 210,000 - ton line of an 880,000 - ton plant unexpectedly shut down for about a month at the end of April [4][6] 2.2 Maintenance Promotes PTA De - stocking - From January to April 2025, the domestic PTA output was 23.69 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In April, the average monthly load of PTA was around 77.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1% compared with January. The PTA load increased to 79.3%, which is at a neutral level in the same period over the years. In May, due to the still - poor PTA profitability, the maintenance efforts of suppliers were still large. It is estimated that the average monthly load of PTA in May is expected to decline month - on - month. Affected by the planned maintenance of some plants, the PTA industry load decreased by 7.4% to 70.3%, reaching a low level in the same period over the years. The domestic PTA weekly output this cycle was 1.2925 million tons, a decrease of 43,800 tons from last week. The current PTA social inventory is about 4.1226 million tons, a decrease of 183,700 tons month - on - month. Whether the terminal demand can achieve a trend - based repair remains to be verified by post - holiday orders, and there is medium - term pressure on the demand side [9][10] 2.3 Polyester Load May Decline - From January to March 2025, the domestic polyester output was 25.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. After the holiday, the polyester load continued to rise to 94.2% (+0.8%). Next week, the weekly output of the Chinese polyester industry is expected to be over 1.57 million tons, a slight increase from this period. As of May 9, the weekly average operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 60.1%, unchanged week - on - week. As of May 9, the grey fabric inventory of East China weaving enterprises was 34.0 days, unchanged week - on - week. Terminal orders are differentiated, the polyester load has increased beyond expectations and may remain high in May. The filament trading volume has declined, and the weighted inventory has started to accumulate. The supply contraction effect caused by the concentrated maintenance of plants continues, and there is a support basis for the short - term polyester industry chain prices, but whether the demand can achieve substantial repair remains to be verified [12][13] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The PXN spread repair has driven the recovery of the load rate of Asian PX plants. The current phased low point of PX plant load has emerged, and it is less likely to return to the previous low - load operation state this year. The short - term rebound is due to the concentrated maintenance of PX and PTA, which is a valuation repair. In the long term, attention should be paid to terminal orders and Sino - US trade negotiations, and whether the demand can achieve substantial repair remains to be verified. Short - term participation is recommended [15]