有色日报：宏观氛围回暖，有色上行-20250512

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - The price of Shanghai copper futures fluctuated upwards, with the main contract price breaking through the 78,000 yuan mark and open interest increasing. The upward movement was largely due to the easing of Sino - US relations and the low inventory pattern in the industry. It is expected to maintain a strong trend [5]. - The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum futures rose with decreasing open interest, recovering most of last week's losses and approaching the 20,000 yuan mark. The upward movement was also due to the easing of Sino - US relations and the low inventory pattern. The pressure at the 20,000 yuan mark can be monitored in the short term [6]. - After a strong rebound on the night of last Friday, the nickel price fluctuated narrowly around 126,000 yuan. The market's expectation of the Philippine nickel ore export ban from June 2025 pushed the nickel price to rebound. The nickel ore market is strong, while the demand is weak. Technically, the price may face some pressure at the late - April high [7]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics Copper - On May 12, Rio Tinto signed a final joint - venture agreement with Sumitomo Metal Mining of Japan for the Winu copper - gold project in Western Australia. Sumitomo will pay up to $430.4 million to acquire a 30% stake in the project [9]. Aluminum - In April 2025, China exported 518,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year - on - year decrease of 0.37%. From January to April, the cumulative export was 1.883 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7% [10]. Nickel - On May 12, for the Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract of refined nickel, the mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,200 yuan/ton, with a price of 128,240 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was +300 yuan/ton, with a price of 126,340 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was +2,700 yuan/ton, with a price of 128,740 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,140 yuan/ton [11]. Group 4: Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][17][14]. Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [25][31][27]. Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][43][39].