聚酯产业链期货日报-20250512

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, short - fiber, and bottle - chip futures have shown upward trends recently. The main reasons include increased gasoline demand leading to higher naphtha demand, multiple device overhauls in the industry, improved macro - atmosphere due to the mutual tariff reduction between China and the US, and changes in supply - demand relationships in different segments of the polyester industry chain. In the short term, these products are expected to fluctuate with a strong bias [6][7][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basic Data - Futures Closing Prices: From May 9th to May 12th, 2025, most futures contracts in the polyester industry chain showed price increases. For example, the 2506 contract of PX rose from 6626 to 6806, with an increase of 180 and a growth rate of 2.72%. The 2506 contract of PTA increased from 4684 to 4836, with an increase of 152 and a growth rate of 3.25% [5]. - Spot Prices: Spot prices also generally increased. For instance, the PTA spot price rose from 4301 to 4400, with a growth rate of 2.30%. The PF (1.4D) spot price increased from 6440 to 6525, with a growth rate of 1.32% [5]. - Basis: The basis of some products changed significantly. The PTA09 main - port basis increased from 149 to 175, with a growth rate of 17.45%. The MEG09 spot basis rose from 78 to 128, with a growth rate of 64.10% [5]. - Monthly Spread: There were also changes in monthly spreads. The TA9 - 1 monthly spread decreased from 72 to 71, with a decline rate of 5.56%, while the EG9 - 1 monthly spread increased from 3 to 23, with a growth rate of 666.67% [5]. - Industrial Chain Price Differences and Profits: Some price differences and profits in the industrial chain changed. The PTA - PX (09 futures contract) price difference increased from 343 to 352, with a growth rate of 2.56%. The PF06 contract processing fee increased from 881 to 1220, with a growth rate of 38.49% [5]. 3.2 Product Analysis - PX: The PX futures price continued to rise. Due to increased gasoline demand, the demand for naphtha for gasoline blending increased. Multiple PX device overhauls were planned, and the market atmosphere improved. The PX - naphtha price difference recovered, and PX valuation was upward - repaired. In the short term, PX is expected to fluctuate with a strong bias [6]. - PTA: The PTA futures price continued to rise, and the basis strengthened. Multiple PTA device overhauls in May led to a significant decline in the operating rate and an upward repair of processing fees. After the May - Day holiday, the polyester operating rate continued to increase, expanding the PTA supply - demand gap. In the short term, PTA is expected to fluctuate with a strong bias [7]. - MEG: The MEG futures price increased. The port inventory decreased, and the domestic operating rate recovered due to the restart of multiple synthetic - gas - based MEG overhaul devices. The supply increased overall, and the inventory pressure was not large. The polyester operating rate remained high, and the supply - demand relationship was in a tight - balance pattern. In the short term, MEG is expected to fluctuate with a strong bias [8][9]. - Short - fiber: The prices of polyester raw material futures continued to strengthen, and short - fiber factory quotes increased. Downstream stocking sentiment improved, and the average sales rate reached 132%. After the holiday, both supply and demand increased, and the inventory changed little. Short - fiber prices followed the trend of raw materials [10]. - Bottle - chip: The prices of polyester raw material futures continued to strengthen, and the bottle - chip futures price increased. A bottle - chip device restarted, and the supply was stable. Although the downstream market atmosphere weakened, the export efficiency was good, and the overall demand was still supported. The current processing fee valuation was low, and the price followed the trend of raw materials [11].