煤焦日报：关税摩擦降温，煤焦低位反弹-20250512

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Coke: The easing of Sino - US tariff tensions has led to a slight rebound in coke futures from a low level. The fundamental situation of coke has changed little, with supply and demand remaining at a high level. Short - term demand is well - supported, but the demand growth rate has started to decline, and the room for further increase in hot metal production is limited. With the release of domestic macro - positive policies and the cooling of Sino - US trade frictions, the coke futures main contract is expected to continue a slight rebound [5][32]. - Coking Coal: An important consensus on tariffs was reached between China and the US in Switzerland, and a package of favorable policies was introduced. The market sentiment has improved, and short - sellers leaving the market have driven the main contract of coking coal futures to rebound from a low level. The supply of coking coal remains in a loose pattern, and although the fundamentals have changed little, the short - term improvement in the market atmosphere supports a slight rebound in coking coal futures [6][33]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - The US promised to cancel 91% of the tariffs on Chinese goods imposed by Executive Orders 14259 and 14266 on April 8 and 9, 2025, and modify the 34% reciprocal tariffs on Chinese goods imposed by Executive Order 14257 on April 2, 2025, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days and the remaining 10% retained. China will cancel 91% of the counter - tariffs on US goods and suspend 24% of the 34% counter - tariffs for 90 days, retaining the remaining 10% [8]. - On May 12, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal A9, S0.5, V20, G85 being 1,270 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1,440 | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 14.79% | - 32.71% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,320 | - 1.49% | - 1.49% | - 18.52% | - 34.00% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimao Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,030 | - 0.48% | - 0.48% | - 12.71% | - 38.69% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian - produced) | 1,300 | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 12.75% | - 41.18% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi - produced) | 1,400 | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 8.50% | - 36.36% | [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,471.5 | 0.75 | 1,476.0 | 1,440.5 | 29,067 | 9,185 | 50,779 | 10 | | Coking Coal | | 889.5 | 0.68 | 891.5 | 864.5 | 511,424 | 188,138 | 399,857 | - 3,159 | [13] 3.4 Related Charts - Coke Inventory: Charts show the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory over the years [14][15][16]. - Coking Coal Inventory: Charts display the inventory of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, and 247 sample steel - mill coking coal over the years [20][23][25]. - Other Charts: Include Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel - mill production, coal - washing plant production, and coking - plant operation conditions [27][29][30]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Coke: The Sino - US tariff issue has improved, and domestic macro - positive policies have been released. The coke market is in a game between fundamentals and tariff policies. The main coke contract is expected to continue a slight rebound [32]. - Coking Coal: The supply of coking coal remains loose, but the short - term improvement in the market atmosphere due to policy support drives the coking coal futures to rebound slightly from a low level [33].