月度策略报告：一损俱损-20250512

Group 1: Report Core Views - In April 2025, international crude oil prices fell sharply after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival and recovered with little success, with WTI falling below $60/barrel. PX, PTA, and MEG were all affected by tariffs and costs, running at low levels [3]. - For PX, it is expected to be driven by the resonance of cost and fundamentals, with a price range of 6400 - 6800 yuan/ton. In April - July 2025, due to the concentrated maintenance of Asian PX devices, supply decreased, but PTA device maintenance led to a smooth destocking in April. PXN's low - level operation provides support, but it's hard to form long - term support [3]. - For PTA, support comes from supply - demand destocking, with a price range of 4500 - 5000 yuan/ton. The crude oil price is expected to be volatile and weak. In May, PTA will continue to destock, and the processing fee has improved [3]. - For MEG, without clear news guidance, the price range is expected to be 4100 - 4500 yuan/ton. Domestic supply will be affected by device maintenance, and demand from polyester has shown signs of improvement, with inventory being destocked [3]. Group 2: Summary by Sector PX - Market Review: In April 2025, PX prices were in a slump after the collapse of cost support. Even the entry into the maintenance season couldn't reverse the panic. After Trump's tariff adjustment, PX prices rebounded with destocking. The monthly average price of PX in China's main port in April was $756.08/ton, a month - on - month decrease of $82.27/ton (- 9.81%) [14][16][21]. - Maintenance Benefits: In April, PX operating loads continued to decline. Many devices were under maintenance, and some had planned maintenance in the future. The domestic average operating rate in April was 68.74%, and the total domestic supply was 351.19 tons, a decrease of 38.82 tons from the previous month [26]. - PXN and PX - MX Spreads: In April, naphtha prices fluctuated, and PXN narrowed and then rebounded slightly. The average value of PXN was $184.73/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.82%. The PX - MX spread was slightly compressed, with an average of $67.75/ton [37][41]. - Destocking: In March 2025, PX imports increased, and the main import sources were South Korea, Japan, and China Taiwan. In April, due to device maintenance and uncertain demand from PTA, PX was expected to have a narrow - range destocking pattern [45][48]. PTA - Market Review: Affected by US equal - tariff policies, PTA prices fell continuously to around 4000 yuan. After the tariff reduction, prices stopped falling and rebounded slightly. The average price in April was 4442.64 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 402.46 yuan/ton (- 8.31%) [49][50]. - Processing Fees and Device Maintenance: The average PTA processing fee in April was 345.91 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 43.84 yuan/ton (13.02%). The average operating rate was 77.60%, a slight decrease from the previous month. Many devices were under maintenance [51][62]. - Inventory Reduction: In April, PTA continued to destock. The estimated total production was 586 tons, consumption was 584.3 tons, and exports were 34 tons. The destocking volume was about 32.30 tons [67]. - Export Decline: In March 2025, PTA exports decreased significantly, with a month - on - month decrease of 24.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 36.62%. The main reason was the new PTA device in Turkey [72]. MEG - Market Review: In April 2025, MEG prices first fell and then rebounded. Affected by US tariffs and crude oil price drops, the price bottomed below 4000 yuan. Later, with the easing of trade frictions, prices rebounded. The monthly average price was 4270.80 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 248.44 yuan/ton [77]. - Device Maintenance: In April, MEG device maintenance increased. The average operating rate of oil - based MEG was 64.26%, an increase of 2.45% from the previous month; the coal - based MEG was 53.61%, a decrease of 9.30% from the previous month [80]. - Port Shipping and Inventory: In April, Zhangjiagang's main port's average daily shipping volume was around 6805 tons. The port inventory was high, and the destocking of social inventory was mainly in the implicit part. As of April 30, the social inventory was 182.56 tons, a decrease of 4.51 tons from the previous month [95]. - Import Impact: In March 2025, MEG imports increased. Affected by Sino - US high - tariff policies, it was difficult for US goods to enter the Chinese market, and the possibility of trans - importing from South Korea was small [103]. Polyester - Market Review: In April 2025, polyester prices first fell and then rebounded. At the beginning of the month, affected by tariffs and raw material price drops, prices fell. At the end of the month, with the easing of trade frictions and the rebound of raw material prices, prices rebounded [116]. - Production and Sales: In April, the production and sales of polyester were significantly differentiated. In the first three weeks, it was light, and in the last week, it was booming. The average monthly production and sales of polyester filament were 51.86%, a month - on - month increase of 5.62% [130]. - Inventory Changes: In April, polyester inventory first increased and then decreased. At the end of the month, due to downstream speculative demand, inventory was destocked. As of April 30, the mainstream inventory of polyester filament POY was 8 - 18 days [137]. - Export Growth: In March 2025, the exports of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle chips all increased. From January to March, the cumulative exports also showed an increasing trend [149]. Textile and Apparel Consumption - Jiangsu and Zhejiang Weaving: As of April 30, the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving was 61.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.96%. Before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the fabric market improved locally, but after the festival, it was affected by tariffs, and the market was sluggish. At the end of the month, the market improved slightly [168]. - First - Quarter Exports: In the first quarter of 2025, the cumulative exports of textile and apparel increased by 1% year - on - year, turning positive from negative. In March, exports increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. However, the US tariff policy will seriously impact China's textile and apparel export market [172].