Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current profit of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, but the weekly output is expected to decline. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak, with weak orders from downstream deep - processing enterprises, and the inventory of float glass enterprises is rising. The glass price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 09 contract at the 1080 level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short term and pay attention to stop - losses [2][23] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The spot price of domestic float glass showed a downward trend. Affected by the May Day holiday, the overall shipment of enterprises was blocked, and although it improved after the holiday, it was still average. Near the weekend, some enterprises raised prices to test the market. In the North China market, prices were mostly lowered during the holiday, and shipments improved with downstream replenishment at the end of the holiday. The East China market was generally stable with minor fluctuations [8] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Supply - demand Analysis - Supply - side: As of May 8, the weekly output of float glass was 1091900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.54%. The average operating rate was 75.24%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22 percentage points, and the average capacity utilization rate was 78.02%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.41 percentage points. The weekly average profit of float glass with different fuels showed different trends. Overall, the weekly output is expected to decline [12] - Demand - side: As of April 30, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.3 days, a week - on - week decrease of 11.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%. The overall order level of deep - processing enterprises is still lower than the same period in previous years, but it increased in April compared with March. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak, with a decline in real - estate completion area in March 2025, and changes in the automobile dealer inventory warning index, heavy - truck sales, and manufacturing PMI [14][15] - Inventory: As of May 8, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 6756000 heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2571000 heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 3.96% and a year - on - year increase of 9.29%. The inventory days were 30.8 days, an increase of 1.4 days compared with the previous period. The inventory in North China and East China increased [17] 2.2 Position Analysis - As of May 9, the total long positions of the top 20 members in the glass futures market increased by 25203 to 804340, and the total short positions increased by 47759 to 993996. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [20] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The profit of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, but the output is expected to decline. The demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. The glass price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the short term and pay attention to stop - losses [23]
企业库存上升，需求仍偏弱
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-05-12 12:26