银河期货苹果日报-20250512

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Apple Daily Report, May 12, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] - Contact: liuqiannan_qh@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Chiba Prefecture Index: 115.09, down 0.15 from the previous day [3] - Luochuan Semi-commodity Paper Bag 70: 4.30, unchanged [3] - Qixia First and Second Grade Paper Bag 80: 4.10, unchanged [3] - Penglai First and Second Grade Paper Bag 80: 4.20, unchanged [3] - Yiyuan Paper Bag 70: 2.40, unchanged [3] - Average Wholesale Price of 6 Fruits: 7.92, down 0.09 [3] Futures Prices - AP01: 7772, up 52 from the previous close [3] - AP05: 7872, down 94 [3] - AP10: 7837, up [3] - AP01 - AP05: -100, up 146 [3] - AP05 - AP10: -119, down 119 [3] - AP10 - AP01: -27, down 27 [3] Basis - Qixia First and Second Grade 80 - AP01: 428, down 52 [3] - Qixia First and Second Grade 80 - AP05: 328, up 94 [3] - Qixia First and Second Grade 80 - AP10: 363.0, down 25 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Apple Market News - As of May 16, 2025, the cold storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China was 2.2886 million tons, a decrease of 379,100 tons from the previous week, and the current cold storage inventory is at a five - year low [4] - In March 2024, the export volume of fresh apples was about 96,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40.8% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative export volume was about 255,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. In March 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 9,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 535.7% and a year - on - year increase of 167.1%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative import volume was 13,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 123.9% [7] - Last Friday, the mainstream market in the origin remained stable. The number of cold storage merchants in the origin was okay, but the procurement became more cautious. The willingness of cargo owners to ship goods increased, but the asking prices were still high. During the weekend, the cold storage trading volume in the Shandong production area decreased, and the shipping speed slowed down. The market arrivals decreased slightly, the shipping situation was average, and the mainstream wholesale price remained stable [7] - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of Qixia 80 first and second - grade storage merchants was 0.9 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.2 yuan/jin from last week [7] - The price of apples in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The price of fruit growers' first and second - grade slice - red apples above 80 was 3.5 - 3.8 yuan/jin, striped apples were 3.5 - 4.5 yuan/jin, merchants' slice - red apples were 4.0 - 4.5 yuan/jin, striped apples were 4.0 - 5.0 yuan/jin. The price of general goods was 2.8 - 3.0 yuan/jin, and the price of third - grade merchants' goods was 2.5 - 3.0 yuan/jin. The mainstream transaction price of 70 apples was 2.5 - 2.7 yuan/jin, priced according to quality. The willingness of cold storage to ship goods increased, merchants' procurement was cautious, and the overall transaction and shipping slowed down [8] Trading Logic - This year's apple cold storage inventory is at a low level, the lowest since 2019. Therefore, it is very likely that the market supply of apples will be tight before the new fruit is launched this fruit season. At present, the market sales are okay, and the spot price is strong, which forms a certain support for the apple price. In addition, the strong wind + high - temperature and drought weather in the western production areas in April of the new fruit season has indeed affected the fruit setting of apples in some production areas. In general, it is expected that the apple trend will continue to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner [9] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short - term, build long positions in AP10 on dips [10] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [11] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [12] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures include Qixia First and Second Grade Paper Bag 80 Price, Luochuan Semi - commodity Paper Bag 70 Price, AP Contract Main Basis, AP10 - AP01, AP05 - AP10, AP10 - AP05, Total Apple Arrivals in Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao, 6 - Fruit Price, National Cold Storage Apple Inventory, National Cold Storage Apple Outbound Volume [16][18][22][24][28] - Data sources are Galaxy Futures, Steel Union, and Wind Information [18][20][24]