橡胶甲醇原油：宏观氛围好转，能化集体走强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The 2509 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, volatile upward movement, and a significant rise on Monday. The price closed up 2.18% at 15,025 yuan/ton. Positive factors include the progress of Sino - US economic and trade talks, the postponement of the natural rubber tapping season in Thailand, and the recovery of the domestic tire industry's raw material procurement after the holiday [6]. - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The 2509 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, volatile stabilization, and a slight rebound on Monday, closing up 1.79% at 2,270 yuan/ton. The improvement in the macro - atmosphere has led to an increase in risk appetite and a stronger willingness to go long [6]. - The domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, stabilization, and a significant rebound on Monday, closing up 3.05% at 472.6 yuan/barrel. The improvement in the macro - atmosphere has led to an increase in risk appetite and a stronger willingness to go long [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of May 4, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,500 tons or 0.9%. The bonded area inventory increased by 4.3% to 85,000 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.38% to 529,200 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 2.17 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.16 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.41 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tire enterprises in Shandong was 44.80%, a week - on - week decrease of 14.74% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.40 percentage points. The operating load of semi - steel tire enterprises was 58.40%, a week - on - week decrease of 8.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 17.80 percentage points [9]. - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 19% and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4% compared to 82,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to April this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat [9]. - In April 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 59.8%, a year - on - year increase of 0.4 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.2 percentage points [10]. Methanol - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.14%, a week - on - week increase of 3.75%, a month - on - month increase of 4.16%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 9.89%. The average weekly methanol production was 2.0578 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 49,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 87,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 352,000 tons [11]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.05%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.65%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%. The acetic acid operating rate was 92.58%, a week - on - week increase of 6.78%. The MTBE operating rate was 46.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.68%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.73%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.72 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 4.43 percentage points [12]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the domestic methanol to olefin futures profit was 289 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 151 yuan/ton [12]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 348,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 101,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 256,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 123,900 tons. The methanol inventory in East China ports was 229,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 69,800 tons, and the inventory in South China ports was 119,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,800 tons [12]. - As of the week of May 8, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 303,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,500 tons or 7.23%, a month - on - month decrease of 10,400 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 86,100 tons [13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of May 2, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 479, a week - on - week decrease of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 20. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.367 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 98,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 267,000 barrels per day [13]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 438.4 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.032 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 21.152 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 24.961 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 740,000 barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 399 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 580,000 barrels [13]. - The US refinery operating rate was 89.0%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 2.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 0.50 percentage points [13]. - Since May 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a volatile and weakening trend. As of May 6, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 175,428 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 1,781 contracts and a significant increase of 15,065 contracts or 9.39% compared to the April average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 96,156 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 10,566 contracts and a significant decrease of 58,149 contracts or 37.68% compared to the April average [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,600 yuan/ton | +150 yuan/ton | 15,025 yuan/ton | +405 yuan/ton | - 425 yuan/ton | - 405 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,417 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 2,270 yuan/ton | +43 yuan/ton | +147 yuan/ton | - 43 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 436.6 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 472.6 yuan/barrel | +10.2 yuan/barrel | - 36.0 yuan/barrel | - 10.4 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, 9 - 1 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [17][21][24] - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic methanol port inventory, inland social inventory of methanol, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [29][31][33] - Crude Oil: Charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [41][43][45]