银行行业：下半年利率债供给节奏前瞻

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [9] Core Viewpoints - The total issuance of government bonds in 2025 is expected to reach 15.19 trillion CNY, with a net financing of 6.66 trillion CNY for national bonds [3][21] - The issuance of local government bonds is projected to be approximately 9.85 trillion CNY, with a net financing amount of about 6.84 trillion CNY [3][21] - The issuance structure indicates that 10-year national bonds will account for about 87.5% of the total issuance, while bonds with maturities longer than 10 years will have a significantly lower proportion [3][25] Summary by Sections Government Bond Issuance - The total limit for national bonds in 2025 is set at 4.86 trillion CNY, with an additional 1.3 trillion CNY for ultra-long special bonds and 500 billion CNY for special bonds [20][21] - The expected net financing for national bonds in 2025 is 6.66 trillion CNY, with a total issuance of 15.19 trillion CNY [3][21] Local Government Bonds - The limit for local general bonds and special bonds is projected to be 5.2 trillion CNY, with a net financing amount of approximately 6.84 trillion CNY [3][21] - The issuance of local bonds is expected to be concentrated in June, with a significant increase in supply [38] Bond Structure and Maturity - For national bonds, the issuance of 10-year bonds is expected to account for about 87.5% of the total, while bonds with maturities longer than 10 years will represent only 1.5% [3][35] - The issuance of ultra-long special bonds is anticipated to be concentrated between May and September, with specific amounts projected for each month [28][29] Market Performance - The bond market has shown a faster issuance pace compared to seasonal trends, with 26% of the annual plan completed by April [36] - The issuance of special refinancing bonds has been front-loaded, with expectations of completion by the second quarter [38]