Xinjiang Tianfu Energy (SH:600509) Haitong Securities International·2025-05-12 12:39Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, projecting a target price of RMB 8.55 based on a 19x PE for 2025 [4][9]. Core Insights - The company's 2024 revenue was RMB 9.27 billion, a decrease of 2.5% year-over-year (YOY), with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 250 million, down 42.3% YOY due to increased credit loss provisions [4][9]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 2.21 billion, a decline of 3.1% YOY, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 22.8% YOY to RMB 180 million [4][9]. - A slight reduction in electricity prices is expected in 2025, but cost improvements are anticipated, including a reduction in revenue by RMB 160 million and a decrease in costs by RMB 76 million due to electricity price adjustments [4][9]. - Falling coal prices may enhance the company's performance, with a projected RMB 240 million reduction in fuel costs if coal prices decrease by RMB 50 per ton [4][9]. - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 618 million in 2025, representing a 149% increase YOY, with a PE of 15.5x [4][9]. Financial Summary - The financial summary indicates the following projections for revenue and net profit: - Revenue for 2025 is estimated at RMB 9.57 billion, with a growth of 3.2% from 2024 [3]. - Net profit for 2025 is projected at RMB 618 million, a significant increase from RMB 248 million in 2024 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be RMB 0.45, increasing to RMB 0.60 by 2027 [4][9]. - The report highlights a decrease in the net asset return rate (ROE) from 5.8% in 2023 to 3.3% in 2024, with a recovery to 7.9% by 2025 [3][4]. Operational Insights - By the end of 2024, the company had an operational capacity of 4.06 million kW, with plans to add 1.3 million kW in 2025 [4][9]. - The company completed a power supply of 21.23 billion kWh in 2024, an increase of 1.42 billion kWh YOY, attributed to enhanced cooperation with the Seventh Division grid [4][9].