成本支撑恢复，供需改善向好能源化工：PX、PTA

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Weekly Summary - After the holiday, PX prices rebounded after a decline due to improved macro - atmosphere and supply contraction. The strong oil market provided cost support, and expected maintenance of domestic reforming and PX devices further pushed up prices [9]. - PTA prices first fell then rose, following crude oil fluctuations. After the May Day holiday, PTA prices initially declined due to the drop in crude oil prices but later rebounded as geopolitical tensions drove up oil prices. With many PTA device maintenance and high - load operation of downstream polyester, PTA inventory decreased, and the price rose due to the resonance of fundamentals and cost [9]. 2.2 Market Forecast - Crude oil: After the Sino - US talks, oil prices are expected to be strong, but the risk lies in Middle - East situation disturbances. PX: Multiple domestic reforming devices have parking plans, increasing the possibility of production cuts in supporting PX devices. Low PXN also increases the expectation of maintenance. PTA: There will still be many device maintenance in May, and the operating rate will be at a low level for the year. Polyester: The short - term operating rate is estimated to be around 90%, with limited announced maintenance plans, especially for large polyester manufacturers. The rigid demand remains good. Weaving: The开机 rate has increased, and the probability of short - term negative feedback is low [10]. - Overall: PX is expected to operate strongly in the range of 6,600 - 6,900 yuan/ton; PTA is expected to operate strongly in the range of 4,550 - 4,850 yuan/ton. Strategy recommendation: Long positions can gradually take profits [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Situation 3.1.1 PX - PX Futures: On May 9, the closing price of the PX main contract was 6,472 yuan/ton, up 266 yuan/ton (4.29%) from April 29. The settlement price was 6,446 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan/ton (3.37%) from April 29. From May 6 - 9, the average basis of the main contract was - 233 yuan/ton, and the average domestic PX spot price was 6,091 yuan/ton, up 19.33 yuan/ton (0.32%) from the previous period [15][16]. - PX Spot: The highest weekly transaction price was 785 dollars/ton, and the lowest was 737 dollars/ton. The CFR China weekly average price was 763 dollars/ton, up 1.46% from the previous week; the FOB Korea weekly average price was 739 dollars/ton, up 1.73% from the previous week [18][20]. 3.1.2 PTA - PTA Futures: On May 9, the closing price of the PTA main contract was 4,582 yuan/ton, up 142 yuan/ton (3.20%) from April 29. The settlement price was 4,568 yuan/ton, up 122 yuan/ton (2.73%) from April 29. From May 6 - 9, the average basis of the main contract was 98.67 yuan/ton. The average weekly CIF price of PTA in the Chinese market was 582.5 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton (1.75%) from the previous period. The average spot price in the East China market was 4,597.5 yuan/ton, up 67.5 yuan/ton (1.49%) from the previous period [23][26]. 3.2 Device Operation Situation 3.2.1 PX Devices - Domestic PX Devices: Many domestic PX devices have load - reduction or maintenance situations. For example, Ningbo Daxie operates at 60% load, and Sheng Hong Refining & Chemical reduces the load of its 200 - ton devices to 70% in early May [31]. - Asian PX Devices: Some Asian PX devices have maintenance or load - change situations. For example, Pertamina in Indonesia has been shut down since January, and its restart time is postponed [32]. 3.2.2 PTA Devices - Many PTA devices are under maintenance in May, such as the 150 - ton device of Ningbo Taihua and the 250 - ton device of Honggang Petrochemical. The weekly operating rate has decreased by 2.53% [37][39]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Cost - Crude Oil: Optimistic sentiment has returned to the market, and the prices of European and American crude oil futures have increased by more than 4% this week. On May 9, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was 61.02 dollars/barrel, up 2.73 dollars/barrel from May 2, and that of Brent crude oil was 63.91 dollars/barrel, up 2.62 dollars/barrel from May 2 [44][46]. - Naphtha: The blending demand for European naphtha has increased, reducing the expected volume of East - West naphtha arbitrage. The weekly average CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 557.30 dollars/ton, and the weekly average production profit was 60.11 dollars/ton [52][54]. 3.3.2 Supply - PX Processing Margin: The short - process economic efficiency of PX has significantly recovered. The weekly average of PXN was 209.44 yuan/ton, with a 13.45% change from the previous period. The PX - MX spread has also increased, but the overall cash - flow is still in a loss situation [57]. - PTA Processing Fee: The processing fee has significantly recovered, driven by device maintenance. In April, the PTA processing margin fluctuated widely, and the spot processing margin expanded to around 500 yuan/ton at the end of the month [61]. - Inventory: The social inventory of PTA has decreased. As of May 9, it was 483.2 tons, down 14.5 tons from the previous week. The inventory days of PTA factories have increased by 0.08 days, while those of polyester factories have decreased by 0.25 days [66][67]. 3.3.3 Demand - Polyester: The prices of polyester products have generally increased. The average market prices of semi - dull POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F have increased by 1.46%, 0.65%, and 1.33% respectively from the previous reporting period. The average weekly sales of polyester products from May 6 - 9 were estimated to be 60%, and the average weekly load of polyester factories was 89.42%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 61.18% [73][80]. - Weaving: The开机 rate of weaving factories has gradually increased. As of May 8, the开机 rates of water - jet looms in Wujiang, Changxing, circular looms in Xiaoshao, warp - knitting machines in Haining, and warp - knitting machines in Changshu have all increased [88].