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银行资负跟踪:双降落地,流动性保持乐观
GF SECURITIES·2025-05-12 12:40

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The report indicates that the dual reduction in reserve requirement ratio and interest rates has been implemented, leading to an optimistic liquidity outlook [16][17] - The central bank's monetary policy measures are expected to positively impact the net interest margin and revenue of listed banks in 2025 and 2026 [16] Summary by Sections 1. Dual Reduction and Optimistic Liquidity - The central bank conducted a total of 836.1 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos at an interest rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 781.7 billion yuan [16] - A package of monetary policy measures was introduced, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [16] - The expected impact on net interest margin for listed banks is an increase of 2.6 basis points in 2025 and a decrease of 1.5 basis points in 2026 [16] 2. Central Bank Dynamics and Market Rates - The report notes a decrease in funding rates, with DR001, DR007, and DR014 down by 29.5, 25.8, and 21.1 basis points respectively [17] - The average issuance rate for NCDs decreased by 5 basis points, with the yield on AAA-rated NCDs also declining [18] 3. Bank Financing Tracking - The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit (NCDs) was 857.7 billion yuan, with a net financing of 335.3 billion yuan [22] - The report highlights a positive trend in net financing for state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, and city commercial banks [22] 4. Government Debt Financing - The net payment for government bonds was -14.825 billion yuan, with an expected increase in net payments to approximately 627.73 billion yuan in the next period [17] - The report anticipates limited supply shocks due to the central bank's actions [17] 5. Future Focus - Upcoming attention will be on April financial data and the outcomes of high-level Sino-US tariff discussions [24]