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“一揽子”政策增强稳地产预期,关注建材板块底部机会
GF SECURITIES·2025-05-12 12:49

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the "package" policy enhances expectations for stabilizing the real estate market, focusing on bottom opportunities in the building materials sector [15][25]. - The report suggests that 2025 will be a year of profit recovery for the building materials sector, supported by supply-side strength and potential demand elasticity, with leading companies expected to recover profits first [25][30]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the recovery of the real estate market, as the overall sales performance of top 100 real estate companies in the first four months of 2025 shows a stable but weak recovery trend [15][16]. Group 2 - In the consumer building materials segment, the report notes that the high demand for second-hand housing, combined with subsidy policies, is leading to a recovery in retail building materials, with strong operational resilience among leading companies [29][32]. - The cement market saw a 1.2% decrease in average prices last week, with the national average price at 383 CNY/ton as of May 9, 2025, indicating a potential stabilization in pricing trends [30][32]. - The glass market is experiencing a mixed trend, with float glass prices declining and trading activity being sluggish, while photovoltaic glass demand remains weak [30][32]. Group 3 - The report indicates that the fiberglass market is currently stable, with prices holding steady, and highlights the leading position of companies like China Jushi and China National Materials in the fiberglass sector [30][32]. - The report provides a detailed financial analysis of key companies in the building materials sector, including their earnings per share (EPS), price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, and return on equity (ROE) projections for 2025 and 2026 [7][39]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong growth potential and valuation elasticity in the consumer building materials sector, as well as those in the cement, fiberglass, and glass sectors that are showing positive changes in supply dynamics [25][30].