东海甲醇聚烯烃周度策略：基本面短期支撑，价格震荡偏弱-20250512

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core Views - Methanol: In the short - term, the price will fluctuate weakly. Although the supply pressure will be briefly relieved due to planned maintenance of inland plants, there is still downward pressure in the medium - to - long term [4]. - Polypropylene (PP): The supply pressure is relieved in the short - term due to maintenance, but the downstream demand is currently weak and stable. The fundamentals are under pressure in May as production increases and demand remains weak [22]. - Polyethylene (PE): Short - term maintenance increases, downstream demand weakens as expected. Supply pressure is somewhat relieved, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [40]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - Supply - Domestic methanol device capacity utilization is 89.97%, a 4.9% week - on - week increase, with most devices restored and sufficient supply. However, next week's methanol production will significantly decrease due to planned restart of some devices and maintenance of others [4]. - Import to - port volume increased significantly. From April 25th to May 8th, the total imported cargo volume was 50.22 tons, and the expected arrival from May 9th to May 15th is 22.4 tons [4]. - Demand - The capacity utilization rate of the methanol - to - olefins industry is 82.48%, a 1.03% week - on - week decrease. Some olefin devices stopped or operated at low loads, and the traditional downstream start - up decreased to varying degrees [4]. - Inventory - Both inland and port inventories increased. The total port inventory is 56.19 tons, a 4.56% week - on - week increase, and the production enterprise inventory is 30.39 tons, a 7.26% increase from the previous period [4]. - Spread - Coal prices decreased by 15 yuan/ton week - on - week. The average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is 196 yuan/ton, a 70 - yuan/ton week - on - week decrease. The port spot is stable with a slight upward trend, the near - month contract is strong, the expectation is weak, and the 5 - 9 spread is stable with a weakening trend [4]. Polypropylene (PP) - Supply - This week's (20250502 - 0508) domestic polypropylene production was 77.98 tons, a 5.25 - ton increase from last week. Due to concentrated maintenance plans, the weekly production will decrease in the next cycle [22]. - Demand - The average start - up of PP downstream industries decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 49.50%. The raw material inventory days of large enterprises in the plastic - woven sample decreased by 1.18% week - on - week, and that of BOPP sample enterprises decreased by 1.35% week - on - week [22]. - Spread - Due to the sharp decline in crude oil prices, cost - profit margins were repaired to varying degrees. The oil - to - PP profit is 355 yuan/ton, a 280 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase; the profit of externally - purchased propylene is - 877 yuan/ton, a 130 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase; the PDH profit is - 731 yuan/ton, a 170 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase [22]. - Inventory - Polypropylene commercial inventory increased by 16.43% from the previous period, the total production enterprise inventory increased by 19.76% week - on - week, the sample trader inventory increased by 10.23% week - on - week, and the sample port warehouse inventory increased by 2.23% week - on - week [22]. Polyethylene (PE) - Supply - This week's (20250502 - 0508) polyethylene production was 64.89 tons, a 0.95% decrease from last week. Next week's production is estimated to decrease by 2.56% compared to this week [40]. - Demand - The overall start - up rate of polyethylene downstream industries is 38.69%, a 0.2% decrease from last week. The overall start - up rate of agricultural films decreased by 3.95% from the previous period, while the start - up rates of some other segments had slight changes [40]. - Spread - The oil - to - PE cost - profit margin increased by 18 yuan/ton to about 215 yuan/ton, with a relatively high valuation. The coal - to - PE profit is around 1140 yuan/ton. The import profit of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE increased compared to the previous period, and some HD and LD varieties have import profits [40]. - Inventory - The production enterprise sample inventory is 57.54 tons, a 38.99% increase from the previous period. The social sample warehouse inventory is 61.17 tons, a 1.98% increase from the previous period [40].