玉米周报：看涨动能减弱，玉米高位震荡-20250512

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - This week, corn prices fluctuated at a high level. The U.S. corn market was weak in the short term. In the domestic market, the short - term supply of corn decreased, and with the concern about wheat production reduction, the spot price of corn was strong. However, due to the upcoming rainfall in the production area and the impact of warehouse clearance, the supply of corn might increase in the future, and the momentum for the continuous strengthening of the spot price weakened. In the medium - to - long term, as the grain sources gradually transferred to channels, the import of corn decreased significantly, and the downstream demand recovered, the long - term corn price was still expected to rise [6][7]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Main Views - The U.S. corn export net sales last week exceeded expectations, but the good weather in the production area suppressed the price. In the domestic market, the previous rapid supply from the grass - roots level led to little remaining grain. As of May 8, the grain sales progress of farmers in 13 provinces was 97%, 4% faster than the same period last year; in 7 major producing provinces, it was 96%, also 4% faster. After the festival, the supply from the grass - roots level decreased, and the concern about wheat drought in the production area stimulated the strength of the corn spot price. However, the upcoming rainfall in Henan would relieve the concern about production reduction and suppress the bullish sentiment. In terms of demand, the replenishment demand after the festival might decline, and the processing demand was expected to weaken. The short - term U.S. corn was weak; the domestic corn spot price was strong in the short term but the continuous strengthening momentum weakened; in the long term, the far - month corn was still expected to rise [7]. 2. Market Review - The CBOT07 corn closed at 449.75 cents per bushel, down 19.00 points from last week, with a weekly decline of 4.05%. The C2507 corn closed at 2375 yuan per ton, down 2 points from last week, with a weekly decline of 0.08% [9]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Outer - market Corn - Sowing: As of the week of May 4, 2025, the U.S. corn planting rate was 40%, lower than the market expectation of 41%, higher than 24% of the previous week, 35% of the same period last year, and the five - year average of 39% [17]. - Export: As of the week of May 1, the net export sales of U.S. corn in the 2024/2025 season were 166.3 tons, compared with 101.4 tons in the previous week; in the 2025/2026 season, the net sales were 1.8 tons, compared with 24.5 tons in the previous week [21]. 3.2 Domestic Supply - Grain Sales Progress: As of May 8, the grain sales progress of farmers in 13 provinces was 97%, 4% faster than the same period last year; in 7 major producing provinces, it was 96%, 4% faster than the same period last year [24]. 3.3 Demand - Feed Enterprises: As of May 8, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 35.14 days, an increase of 0.39 days from last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.97% [28]. - Processing Enterprises: From May 1 to May 7, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 121.97 tons of corn, a decrease of 2.15 tons from the previous week. The corn starch operating rate was expected to decline. As of May 7, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 494.6 tons, a decrease of 5.18% [32][36]. 3.4 Inventory - Port Inventory: As of May 2, 2025, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 425.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.6 tons, and the shipping volume was 79.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 39.10 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic corn inventory was 150.3 tons, a decrease of 13.40 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 3.5 tons, a decrease of 2.50 tons from last week; the imported sorghum was 22 tons, a decrease of 3.60 tons from last week; the imported barley was 60.5 tons, a decrease of 0.20 tons from last week [38]. 4. Spread Tracking No specific analysis content provided, only the spread types such as corn 9 - 1 spread, powder - rice spread, corn basis, and wheat - rice spread were mentioned [42][44].