有色金属套利周报20250512-20250512

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metal Arbitrage Weekly Report 20250512 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Jiefu, Wang Yanhong [2] - Investment Consulting Numbers: Z0016959, Z0010675 [2] - Email: wangyh@zxqh.net, zhangjf@zxqh.net [2] - Tel: 027 - 68851554 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For zinc's inter - period arbitrage, due to the easing of tariff disputes in atmosphere, smelters turning profitable, continuous rapid increase in TC, and the cyclical shift of zinc ore supply from tight to loose with new domestic and foreign zinc mines coming into production, it is recommended to participate in the inter - period positive arbitrage of zinc by rolling at low prices [4]. - For the cross - variety arbitrage of aluminum and zinc, as zinc mine projects are expected to gradually release incremental output and the fundamentals of aluminum are stronger than zinc, it is recommended to participate in the strategy of going long on aluminum and short on zinc by rolling at low prices [4]. Summary by Directory Part I: Weekly Price Performance Review and Capital Flow - Weekly Price Review: LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin prices increased week - on - week with increases of 3.51%, 0.75%, 2.35%, 1.23%, 2.50%, and 1.71% respectively; SHFE copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin prices changed by 0.30%, - 1.11%, - 0.21%, - 0.22%, and - 0.29% respectively, while SHFE aluminum price decreased by 1.63% [8]. - Capital Flow: Most non - ferrous metals' single - sided open interest is at a relatively low level in recent years, with aluminum's single - sided open interest increasing significantly recently. This week, the single - sided open interest of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin increased by 6.5%, 11.4%, 13.7%, 7.2%, 5.2%, and 4.5% respectively. Except for lead and nickel, major non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows [10]. Part II: Non - ferrous Metal Inventory and Profit Situation - Inventory Situation: LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin inventories decreased week - on - week with decreases of 4.18%, 2.89%, 2.82%, 4.58%, 1.81%, and 1.81% respectively [26]. - Profit Situation: This week, the processing fee of copper decreased slightly, and smelters' loss widened to 2921 yuan/ton; the theoretical smelting cost of aluminum was 17818 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit dropped to 1731 yuan/ton; the domestic processing fee of zinc increased by 50 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic zinc ore was - 243 yuan/ton [43]. Part III: Non - ferrous Metal Basis and Term Structure - Basis Situation: As of May 9, 2025, the copper basis was 930 with a basis premium rate of 1.20%; the aluminum basis was - 35 with a basis premium rate of - 0.18%; the zinc basis was 550 with a basis premium rate of 2.48%; the lead basis was 5 with a basis premium rate of 0.03%; the nickel basis was 1160 with a basis premium rate of 0.94%; the tin basis was - 340 with a basis premium rate of - 0.13% [46]. - Term Structure: This week, nickel was in a Contango structure, while copper and zinc were in a Back structure. The spread between the first - line contract and the near - month contract of copper was - 510, a decrease of 280 compared with last week; that of aluminum was - 70, an increase of 5; that of zinc was - 385, a decrease of 145; that of lead was - 20, a decrease of 30; that of nickel was 210, remaining unchanged; that of tin was 240, an increase of 70 [62]. Part IV: Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - Domestic - to - Overseas Ratio: Zinc and lead's Shanghai - to - LME ratios are at relatively high historical levels. This week, the Shanghai - to - LME ratios of major metals showed mixed trends, with the ratios of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin being 1.13, 1.12, 1.15, 1.17, 1.08, and 1.12 respectively [81]. - Import Profit and Loss: This week, the import profit and loss of copper, zinc, and lead were 548, 93, and 269 respectively, while those of other major metals were negative. Cross - market arbitrage can focus on factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and the expectation of domestic growth - stabilizing policies [81]. Part V: Changes in Cross - variety Ratios of Non - ferrous Metals - As of May 9, 2025, the copper - aluminum ratio was 3.95 with a ratio quantile of 96.8%; the copper - zinc ratio was 3.49 with a ratio quantile of 98.9%; the copper - lead ratio was 4.61 with a ratio quantile of 84.3%; the copper - nickel ratio was 1.59 with a ratio quantile of 0.3%; the copper - tin ratio was 3.35 with a ratio quantile of 68.8%; the zinc - aluminum ratio was 1.13 with a ratio quantile of 25.7%; the aluminum - lead ratio was 1.17 with a ratio quantile of 36.2%; the aluminum - nickel ratio was 6.30 with a ratio quantile of 10.1%; the aluminum - tin ratio was 13.25 with a ratio quantile of 83.6%; the zinc - lead ratio was 1.32 with a ratio quantile of 31.3%; the zinc - nickel ratio was 5.56 with a ratio quantile of 14.5%; the zinc - tin ratio was 11.70 with a ratio quantile of 87.8%; the lead - nickel ratio was 7.35 with a ratio quantile of 9.5%; the lead - tin ratio was 15.44 with a ratio quantile of 72.8%; the nickel - tin ratio was 2.10 with a ratio quantile of 97.1% [98].