银河期货油脂日报-20250512

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that short - term oils and fats will maintain a volatile trend. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have positive support, while palm oil's fundamentals are gradually weakening and may trend lower. However, the downward space for palm oil on the chart may be limited [11]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on May 12, 2025, were 7814, 8024, and 9378 respectively, with price changes of 34, 138, and 23. The basis for each variety in different regions is also presented [4]. - Monthly Spread: The 9 - 1 monthly spreads for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 6, 2, and 178, with price changes of - 8, - 12, and 30 respectively [4]. - Cross - Variety Spread: The 09 - contract spreads of Y - P, OI - Y, and OI - P were - 210, 1564, and 1354, with price changes of - 11, 0, and - 115 respectively. The oil - meal ratio was 2.69, with a change of 0.003 [4]. - Import Profit: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 428, and the disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 1075 [4]. - Weekly Commercial Inventory: In the 18th week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 62.0, 35.6, and 83.6 million tons respectively [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: APK - Inform lowered Ukraine's 2025 grain harvest forecast by 3.8% to 55.3 million tons, corn production by 7.3% to 27 million tons, and 2025/26 grain export forecast by 4% to 40.9 million tons. It raised the 2025 soybean harvest forecast to 6.11 million tons and 2025/26 soybean export forecast to 3.69 million tons [6]. - Domestic Market (P/Y/OI): - Palm Oil: Affected by Sino - US trade tariffs, palm oil futures prices rose by over 1%. As of May 9, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 33.73 million tons, a 5.28% decrease from the previous week. The inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period of history [7]. - Soybean Oil: Sino - US trade tariffs led to an overall rebound in oils and fats. As of May 9, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 65.44 million tons, a 4.40% increase from the previous week. With the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, soybean oil will gradually accumulate inventory [8]. - Rapeseed Oil: Affected by Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations, rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated slightly higher. As of May 2, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 83.55 million tons, an increase from the previous week, remaining at a high level in the same period of history [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term oils and fats are expected to remain volatile. Consider lightly - weighted long positions in palm oil for a rebound or short positions after a rebound. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have positive support [11]. - Arbitrage: Consider partial profit - taking and partial holding of YP09 [12]. - Options: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [13].