中美联合声明传递的信号：中美贸易摩擦达峰兑现

Group 1: Trade Tariff Changes - The overall tariff level imposed by the U.S. on China will decrease from 145% to approximately 30% within the next 90 days[1] - The current U.S. tariffs consist of a 20% fentanyl tariff and a 34% "reciprocal tariff," which will be reduced to 10% in the next 90 days[2] - The U.S. has committed to canceling an additional 91% retaliatory tariffs imposed since April 8, 2025, while China will also eliminate corresponding retaliatory measures[3] Group 2: Economic Impact and Future Outlook - The impact of U.S. tariffs on China's GDP is estimated to be around -1%, with a potential reduction in exports by approximately 1.3 trillion RMB based on a 30% tariff level[3] - The future trajectory of the fentanyl tariff may see gradual reductions, as discussions on this issue were highlighted in recent negotiations[4] - The "reciprocal tariff" is expected to stabilize above 10% after the initial 90-day period, reflecting ongoing trade deficit concerns[5] - The necessity for significant counter-cyclical policy adjustments in China is expected to decrease, with a positive outlook for technology stocks due to improved market risk appetite[8]