Report Industry Investment Rating - US stocks - Standard allocation [36] - European stocks - Overweight [37] - Chinese A - shares - Standard allocation [39] - Hong Kong stocks - Standard allocation [40][42] - Japan - Standard allocation [43] - Indian market - Standard allocation [44] Report's Core View - In April, the global capital market was mainly influenced by Trump's tariff policy. Global stock markets, bond markets, foreign exchange markets, and commodity markets all showed significant fluctuations. Different regions and asset classes had different performances and outlooks due to factors such as economic data, central bank policies, and trade negotiations [34][60][66][69] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Performance in April Stock Markets - Most major global stock markets showed fluctuations in April. The German stock market outperformed other EU markets, while Hong Kong stocks performed poorly. US stocks were volatile, and European stocks first declined and then rebounded [34][35] Bond Markets - In April, the US bond market was volatile, the European bond market rose, and the Chinese bond market continued the "bond bull" market. Different bond indices had different performance trends [60] Foreign Exchange Markets - The US dollar index declined in April, the euro strengthened against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate was weak [66] Commodity Markets - Gold prices reached a record - high in April and then declined, oil prices dropped significantly, and copper prices first rose and then fell [69] 2. Macroeconomic Review US Macroeconomy - In April, the number of new non - farm payrolls in the US exceeded expectations, but the average hourly wage increase was lower than expected. In March, CPI and core CPI were lower than expected. Retail sales in March increased significantly, and the service industry PMI showed mixed performance [8][10][14][16] Chinese Macroeconomy - In the first quarter, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year, CPI decreased slightly, PPI decline slowed down, consumption increased, and imports and exports, industrial added value, and fixed - asset investment all had different performance trends [20][23] 3. Central Bank Policies - In April, the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the cash rate target, the Bank of Canada paused interest rate cuts, and the European Central Bank cut key interest rates [29] 4. Stock Market Views US Stocks - In April, US stocks fluctuated sharply. The reasons for the upgrade from underweight to standard allocation include Trump's softened attitude, strong economic data, and the possibility of repeated trade negotiations [36] European Stocks - European stocks first declined and then rebounded in April. The reasons for the upgrade from standard allocation to overweight include reduced tariff uncertainty, increased European fiscal spending, eased Russia - Ukraine situation, and valuation discounts [37][38] Chinese A - shares - Chinese A - shares first declined and then repaired in April. The reasons for maintaining the standard allocation include the difficulty of trade agreement implementation, mixed economic data, conservative policies, and reasonable valuations [39] Hong Kong Stocks - Hong Kong stocks declined in early April and rebounded in the second half of the month. The reasons for maintaining the standard allocation include the difficulty of implementing the Sino - US trade agreement and the support of capital inflows [42] Japanese Stocks - Japanese stocks first declined and then rose in April. The reasons for maintaining the standard allocation include the progress of trade negotiations, the cautious policy of the Bank of Japan, and the existence of arbitrage space [43] Indian Market - The Indian market performed strongly in April. The reasons for the upgrade from underweight to overweight include the high possibility of reaching an agreement with the US, interest rate cuts by the Indian central bank, and the potential to undertake manufacturing transfer [44] 5. Overseas Debt Market Primary Market - In April, the primary market of Chinese overseas debt issued about $119.35 billion, with a net increase of about - $93.42 billion. The Chinese Ministry of Finance successfully issued RMB green sovereign bonds in London [50] Secondary Market - As of April 30, 2025, the Markit iBoxx Chinese US dollar investment - grade bond index and high - yield bond index both rose slightly [53] 6. Selected Funds - The report selects funds based on different asset classes and geographical locations, using criteria such as historical performance, expense ratio, and risk for different types of funds [73][74][75]
富时中国A50指数:2.03-3.31
Orient Securities Hongkong·2025-05-12 13:07