Report Industry Investment Rating - US stocks - Overweight [34] - European stocks - Overweight [35] - Chinese A - shares - Equal - weight [36] - Hong Kong stocks - Underweight [37] - Japanese stocks - Equal - weight [38] - Indian market - Overweight [39] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June 2025, different financial markets showed diverse trends, influenced by factors such as economic data, central bank policies, and trade relations. Stock markets had varying performances, with some reaching new highs. Bond markets were affected by economic and geopolitical events. The foreign exchange market was driven by interest rate expectations and trade policies. Commodity prices fluctuated due to supply - demand dynamics and geopolitical tensions. The report also provided investment ratings and reasons for different markets and selected funds based on specific criteria [34][56][64] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance Data - **Stock Markets**: In June 2025, the Nasdaq 100 index had a monthly increase of 6.27% and a YTD increase of 7.93%, while the European Stoxx 50 index decreased by 1.18% monthly but had an 8.32% YTD increase. The Hang Seng Index rose 3.36% in June and 20.00% YTD [1] - **Bond Markets**: The Bloomberg US Corporate High - Yield Bond Index increased 1.84% monthly and 4.57% YTD, while the Bloomberg European Aggregate Total Return Index decreased 0.09% monthly and had a 0.84% YTD increase [2] - **Commodity Markets**: Gold prices (in dollars per ounce) increased 0.42% monthly and 25.86% YTD, and New York crude oil futures (in dollars per barrel) increased 7.11% monthly but decreased 9.22% YTD [4] - **Foreign Exchange Markets**: The US dollar index decreased 2.47% monthly and 10.70% YTD, while the euro/dollar increased 3.88% monthly and 13.84% YTD [5] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis US Macroeconomy - **Employment**: In June, the US added 147,000 non - farm jobs, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. However, the growth mainly came from the government sector, and the actual employment pressure remained [9] - **Inflation**: In May, the US CPI increased 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased 2.8% year - on - year. Some categories affected by import tariffs had significant price increases [11] - **Retail Sales**: In May, US retail sales decreased 0.9% month - on - month, mainly due to the decline in automobile and gasoline sales [16] - **Services PMI**: In June, the US ISM Services PMI was 50.8, back in the expansion zone, while the S&P Global Services PMI was 52.9, showing differences between SMEs and large enterprises [18] Chinese Macroeconomy - **Consumption**: In May, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased 6.4% year - on - year, with significant growth in some categories due to promotional activities and policies [21] - **Real Estate**: In May, housing prices in Chinese cities showed a pattern of month - on - month decline and year - on - year narrowing of the decline [21] - **CPI and PPI**: In May, China's CPI decreased 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased 3.3% year - on - year, with different trends in different industries [21][23] - **Imports and Exports**: In May, China's exports increased 4.8% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports decreased 3.4% year - on - year, with different performances in trade with different regions [23] - **PMI**: In June, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, and the composite PMI output index was 50.7%, indicating continued improvement in the economic climate [23] Central Bank Policies - **Canada**: On June 4, the Bank of Canada kept the key interest rate at 2.75%, waiting for clearer signals on trade conflicts [25] - **Europe**: On June 5, the European Central Bank cut the three key interest rates by 25 basis points, further releasing a loose monetary policy signal [25] - **Japan**: On June 17, the Bank of Japan kept the target interest rate at 0.5% and planned to reduce the scale of Japanese government bond purchases [25] - **US**: On June 18, the Fed kept the federal funds rate at 4.25 - 4.5%, with more officials cautious about interest rate cuts [27] - **UK**: On June 19, the Bank of England kept the policy rate at 4.25%, with more members worried about economic weakness [27] - **Switzerland**: On June 19, the Swiss National Bank cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 0%, dealing with low inflation pressure [27] 3. Market Review and Outlook Stock Markets - **US Stocks**: In June, US stocks generally rose, with the S&P 500 hitting a new high. The reasons for the upgrade to overweight include trade friction mitigation, positive economic data, low inflation, and the irreplaceability of US stocks [34] - **European Stocks**: In June, European stocks were sluggish, but the market expected a trade agreement between the US and Europe. The reasons for maintaining the overweight rating include government fiscal spending, central bank interest rate cuts, and the attractiveness of European stocks as a diversification alternative [35] - **Chinese A - shares**: The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high in June. The reasons for the upgrade to equal - weight include progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, signs of economic bottoming, low capital costs, and expectations for the Politburo meeting [36] - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index exceeded 24,000 in June, but the Hang Seng Tech Index underperformed. The reasons for the downgrade to underweight include intensified competition in the Internet industry, a slowdown in new consumption, and a shortage of high - quality assets [37] - **Japanese Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 index exceeded 40,000 in June. The reasons for maintaining the equal - weight rating include the stalemate in US - Japan trade negotiations, corporate governance optimization, and Japan's exit from deflation [38] - **Indian Market**: The Indian stock market hit a new high in June. The reasons for maintaining the overweight rating include high - speed economic growth, the potential to benefit from manufacturing transfer, and a reasonable valuation considering growth [39] Bond Markets - **Primary Market**: In June 2025, 89 bonds were issued in the primary market of Chinese overseas bonds, including 46 US dollar bonds and 26 offshore RMB bonds. The issuance scale of US dollar bonds recovered, and the issuance of dim - sum bonds increased [44] - **Secondary Market**: As of June 30, 2025, the Markit iBoxx Chinese US dollar investment - grade bond index rose 0.89%, and the high - yield bond index rose 1.11% [47] Foreign Exchange Market - In June, the US dollar index declined for the sixth consecutive month, and the euro was strong. The RMB rose against the US dollar but had a lower increase compared to other major currencies [61] Commodity Market - Gold prices fluctuated at a high level, with short - term adjustment needs but long - term support. Crude oil prices rose first and then fell, with a significant discount indicating concerns about supply surplus. Iron ore prices dropped due to the weak real estate market and supply - side reform expectations [64] 4. Selected Funds - The report selected funds based on different criteria for different types of funds, including historical performance, expense ratio, and risk. For example, the Taikang Kaitai Hong Kong Dollar Money Fund was selected as a money - market fund, and the Invesco Global High - Grade Corporate Bond Fund USD Acc was selected as an investment - grade bond fund [66]

Report Industry Investment Rating - US stocks - Standard allocation [36] - European stocks - Overweight [37] - Chinese A - shares - Standard allocation [39] - Hong Kong stocks - Standard allocation [40][42] - Japan - Standard allocation [43] - Indian market - Standard allocation [44] Report's Core View - In April, the global capital market was mainly influenced by Trump's tariff policy. Global stock markets, bond markets, foreign exchange markets, and commodity markets all showed significant fluctuations. Different regions and asset classes had different performances and outlooks due to factors such as economic data, central bank policies, and trade negotiations [34][60][66][69] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Performance in April Stock Markets - Most major global stock markets showed fluctuations in April. The German stock market outperformed other EU markets, while Hong Kong stocks performed poorly. US stocks were volatile, and European stocks first declined and then rebounded [34][35] Bond Markets - In April, the US bond market was volatile, the European bond market rose, and the Chinese bond market continued the "bond bull" market. Different bond indices had different performance trends [60] Foreign Exchange Markets - The US dollar index declined in April, the euro strengthened against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate was weak [66] Commodity Markets - Gold prices reached a record - high in April and then declined, oil prices dropped significantly, and copper prices first rose and then fell [69] 2. Macroeconomic Review US Macroeconomy - In April, the number of new non - farm payrolls in the US exceeded expectations, but the average hourly wage increase was lower than expected. In March, CPI and core CPI were lower than expected. Retail sales in March increased significantly, and the service industry PMI showed mixed performance [8][10][14][16] Chinese Macroeconomy - In the first quarter, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year, CPI decreased slightly, PPI decline slowed down, consumption increased, and imports and exports, industrial added value, and fixed - asset investment all had different performance trends [20][23] 3. Central Bank Policies - In April, the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the cash rate target, the Bank of Canada paused interest rate cuts, and the European Central Bank cut key interest rates [29] 4. Stock Market Views US Stocks - In April, US stocks fluctuated sharply. The reasons for the upgrade from underweight to standard allocation include Trump's softened attitude, strong economic data, and the possibility of repeated trade negotiations [36] European Stocks - European stocks first declined and then rebounded in April. The reasons for the upgrade from standard allocation to overweight include reduced tariff uncertainty, increased European fiscal spending, eased Russia - Ukraine situation, and valuation discounts [37][38] Chinese A - shares - Chinese A - shares first declined and then repaired in April. The reasons for maintaining the standard allocation include the difficulty of trade agreement implementation, mixed economic data, conservative policies, and reasonable valuations [39] Hong Kong Stocks - Hong Kong stocks declined in early April and rebounded in the second half of the month. The reasons for maintaining the standard allocation include the difficulty of implementing the Sino - US trade agreement and the support of capital inflows [42] Japanese Stocks - Japanese stocks first declined and then rose in April. The reasons for maintaining the standard allocation include the progress of trade negotiations, the cautious policy of the Bank of Japan, and the existence of arbitrage space [43] Indian Market - The Indian market performed strongly in April. The reasons for the upgrade from underweight to overweight include the high possibility of reaching an agreement with the US, interest rate cuts by the Indian central bank, and the potential to undertake manufacturing transfer [44] 5. Overseas Debt Market Primary Market - In April, the primary market of Chinese overseas debt issued about $119.35 billion, with a net increase of about - $93.42 billion. The Chinese Ministry of Finance successfully issued RMB green sovereign bonds in London [50] Secondary Market - As of April 30, 2025, the Markit iBoxx Chinese US dollar investment - grade bond index and high - yield bond index both rose slightly [53] 6. Selected Funds - The report selects funds based on different asset classes and geographical locations, using criteria such as historical performance, expense ratio, and risk for different types of funds [73][74][75]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a general cooling of inflation in the U.S., with February CPI rising 2.8%, lower than the expected 2.9% and previous 3% [6][20]. - The report indicates that the Chinese government has launched a "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" to boost domestic demand, reflecting a consensus among decision-makers to enhance consumption [26][23]. - The report notes that the A-share market has shown strong performance, leading among global indices, with policies aimed at stimulating domestic consumption expected to benefit the consumer sector [21][23]. Summary by Sections U.S. Economic Data - February CPI data shows a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, with core CPI rising 3.1%, both lower than expectations [6][20]. - February PPI data indicates a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, also below expectations, suggesting a short-term easing of inflation [5][6]. Japanese Economic Data - Japan's Q4 GDP was revised down to a seasonally adjusted annualized growth of 2.2%, lower than the expected 2.8%, with personal consumption remaining flat [10]. Chinese Financial Data - As of the end of February, M2 money supply was 320.52 trillion yuan, growing 7% year-on-year, while social financing stock was 417.29 trillion yuan, up 8.2% year-on-year [15][16]. - The report indicates a significant increase in government bond issuance to address local debt, with nearly 800 billion yuan in replacement bonds issued [15]. Stock Market Insights - The report notes that the Indian market is underperforming compared to global indices, with a projected GDP growth of only 6.5% for 2025 [21]. - The consumer sector in China is expected to benefit from policy support aimed at boosting domestic consumption, with notable gains in the beauty and food & beverage sectors [21][26]. Bond Market Overview - The U.S. bond market experienced fluctuations due to concerns over tariffs and inflation data, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.32% [33][36]. - The Chinese bond market remains cautious, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing to 1.89% amid a stable funding environment [34][36].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed outlook for the manufacturing and services sectors in the U.S., with manufacturing showing signs of weakness while services demonstrate resilience [4][3]. Core Insights - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for February was reported at 50.3, below expectations of 50.8, indicating a slight expansion in manufacturing activity. Notably, the new orders index fell by 6.5 percentage points, reflecting a significant decline in demand [4][3]. - In contrast, the ISM services PMI for February was reported at 53.5, exceeding expectations of 52.5, suggesting an acceleration in service sector expansion [4][3]. - The services employment index rose to 53.9, while the prices index increased by 2.2 percentage points to 62.6, indicating persistent cost pressures that are being passed on to consumers [3][4]. Summary by Sections Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing employment index and new orders index both saw significant declines, with the new orders index dropping to its lowest level since May of the previous year [4][8]. - The manufacturing prices index surged to 62.4, significantly higher than the expected 56.3, indicating accelerated price growth [4][3]. Services Sector - The services sector showed resilience with a PMI of 53.5, reflecting a faster expansion rate compared to previous months [4][3]. - The services new orders index saw a slight increase, while the employment index experienced its first decline in three months [8][3]. Inflation and Economic Outlook - The report highlights persistent inflationary pressures, with the manufacturing prices index remaining above 60 for three consecutive months, indicating sticky inflation in the U.S. economy [3][4]. - The overall economic outlook suggests a potential shift towards "stagflation" as manufacturing demand weakens while costs remain high [4][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an overweight rating on the MSCI China Index, indicating a positive outlook for the Chinese market driven by advancements in AI technology [55]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the AI ASIC market is projected to grow from $12 billion in 2024 to $30 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 34% [55]. - The report notes that the recent performance of Hong Kong stocks has been strong, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index, which has risen by 23.68% year-to-date, outperforming other major global indices [29][28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of dynamic asset allocation during the valuation recovery of Chinese assets, suggesting a barbell strategy of "technology + dividends" to capture market opportunities while mitigating risks [29][28]. Economic Data Summary - In January, the U.S. CPI increased by 3% year-on-year, surpassing expectations of 2.9%, while the PPI rose by 3.5%, also exceeding the forecast of 3.2% [5][8]. - The report indicates that U.S. retail sales fell by 0.9% month-on-month in January, marking the largest decline since March 2023, attributed to adverse weather conditions and persistent inflation affecting consumer confidence [8]. - In China, the CPI rose by 0.5% year-on-year in January, with a significant increase in service and food prices due to the Spring Festival [13][14]. The PPI, however, decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, reflecting seasonal factors and supply conditions [14]. Fund Performance - The report details that the Ruiyuan China Stock Fund has achieved a one-year return of 56.26%, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index, which returned 37.38% during the same period [32][28]. - The fund's holdings are concentrated in consumer discretionary and internet sectors, with top positions including Tencent Holdings and Pop Mart [34][32].