ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-05-12 13:08Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [6][18]. Core Insights - The global manufacturing PMI is weakening, indicating a potential economic turning point, leading to a weak performance in basic metals [6][11]. - Despite short-term price weakness in basic metals, the long-term supply-demand dynamics suggest limited downside potential, particularly for rigid supply varieties like aluminum and copper [6][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The industry comprises 142 listed companies with a total market value of 29,468.06 billion and a circulating market value of 27,667.90 billion [3]. - The A-share market overall rose, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.07 percentage points [21][25]. Economic Factors - The April manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49, indicating contraction, with new orders PMI at 49.2 [36]. - The U.S. manufacturing PMI also declined to 48.7, reflecting similar trends [38]. - The Eurozone's economic sentiment index dropped significantly to -18.5 [47]. Basic Metals Analysis - Aluminum: Trade uncertainties and weak demand expectations have led to a decline in aluminum prices post-holiday. The operating capacity for electrolytic aluminum remains stable at 43.835 million tons [9][55]. - Alumina: The supply-demand balance is tight, with production decreasing and some companies reportedly violating production regulations, creating short-term bullish sentiment [12]. - Copper: The processing fees for copper concentrate are declining, while domestic refined copper production is increasing, indicating a deepening conflict in the mining and metallurgy sectors [14]. - Zinc: Domestic refined zinc production is growing, with social inventories at historically low levels [16]. Inventory and Pricing - Overall inventory levels for basic metals are low, with specific metrics indicating a decrease in aluminum ingot inventory to 694,000 tons [10][57]. - The current price for electrolytic aluminum is around 19,550 yuan per ton, reflecting a 2.49% decrease [57].