天富期货天富期货：原油周报：情绪释放完毕，原油阶段性上涨或告一段落，关注中期空单再进场机会-20250512

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - After the Sino-US economic and trade negotiation, the short - term upward drive in sentiment may come to an end. The current 50% tariff on China is still relatively high, and the bullish trading has been quite sufficient. The short - term bullish factors for crude oil are exhausted, and without the Iranian geopolitical risk, the stage - rise of crude oil is expected to end. For oil - chemical products, maintain a medium - term bearish view and wait for short - selling opportunities after short - term breakouts [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bullish. The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. Today, it rose with a reduction in positions, and the volume did not match, so it is not considered a reversal. Look for reversal patterns that do not exceed the medium - term pressure level of 500 to try secondary entry of medium - term short positions [4][5] Benzene Ethylene (EB) - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bullish. The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. Today, it increased positions and had a long - Yang line, breaking through the short - term pressure on April 29. The pre - holiday short positions should be stopped for profit and then wait and see [5][6] PX - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bullish. The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. Today, it increased positions and rose. Pay attention to the low point on the night of May 9 as the short - term support. Wait for the breakdown of the support and then look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [5][10] PTA - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bullish. The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. Today, it increased positions and rose. Pay attention to the low point on the night of May 9 as the short - term support. Wait for the breakdown of the support and then look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [5][13] PP - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bearish. The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. Today's decline in positions and rebound is not considered a trend reversal. It is relatively weaker than PX and PTA. The remaining pre - holiday short positions can still be held, and the stop - profit is still referenced at the 7060 level [5][17] Urea - Medium - term structure is oscillating, short - term structure is bullish. The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. Technically, it oscillated within the day today, and the short - term support below is referenced at the low point on May 8. Look for opportunities to go long on dips without breaking the support [5][18] Methanol - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is oscillating. The hourly - level has a downward structure. Today, it declined in positions and rose above the short - term pressure level of 2250, and the short - term trend is considered reversed. Stop the loss of short positions as planned and then wait and see [5][21] Rubber - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is oscillating. The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term oscillating structure. Today, it increased positions and rose but did not break through the upper edge of the oscillating range. The upper pressure is still referenced at the high point on April 8. In the near term, it is doing an oversold repair through narrow - range oscillation by trading time for space. The general strategy is to short on rallies, but there is no short - term opportunity [5][22][25] Caustic Soda - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bullish. The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. Today, it increased positions and rose, and there was an opportunity to enter long positions in the form of a reversal pattern within the day, but the strategy has not prompted recently, so still mainly wait and see [5][27] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bullish. The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. Today, it increased positions and rose above the short - term pressure level of 4250, and the short - term trend is considered reversed. Stop the profit and loss of previous short positions as planned and then wait and see [5][31] Plastic - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bullish. The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level's short - term downward structure has ended. Today, it declined in positions and rose above the high - point pressure level on April 30, and the short - term decline may end. Stop the profit of short positions as planned and then wait and see [5][32]