贸易谈判点评：中美谈判：“破冰”几何？

Group 1: Tariff Adjustments - The U.S. has reduced tariffs on China from 145% to 30%, with potential for further reductions in the future[2] - The 20% tariff on fentanyl is subject to additional negotiations, with a possibility of it being lowered to 10% if an agreement is reached[3] - A 34% "original" reciprocal tariff remains, with 24% suspended for 90 days, which will be a key focus in upcoming negotiations[2] Group 2: Negotiation Dynamics - Future negotiations will focus on two main areas: the suspended 24% tariffs and the fentanyl issue[4] - The complexity of negotiations may increase due to the involvement of U.S. drug enforcement officials, particularly with the recent appointment of DEA Director Terry Cole[4] - The experience from the U.S.-UK agreement suggests that a 10% baseline reciprocal tariff may be difficult to eliminate entirely[4] Group 3: Economic Impact - The 30% tariff is expected to reduce China's exports to the U.S. by approximately 37.4 percentage points, with a potential decline in overall exports by 5.5% and nominal GDP by 1%[6] - The anticipated impact of the tariffs indicates that China's export growth may stabilize in the coming months, despite the high tariff rates[6] - The risk remains that if negotiations do not progress smoothly, the suspended tariffs could be reinstated[6]