宏观动态报告：日内瓦联合声明，怎么看？

Group 1: Trade Negotiation Outcomes - The US will impose a 10% tariff on 34% of the goods previously subject to "reciprocal tariffs" within 90 days, aligning with other countries[3] - China will also apply a 10% tariff on the same 34% of goods in response, resulting in a total reduction of tariffs by 115% over the next 90 days[3] - The statement did not address the 20% tariff related to the "fentanyl issue"[3] Group 2: Economic Impact on China - China's export growth is expected to decline by approximately 25 percentage points due to a 30% tariff, impacting the annual growth rate by about 3.6 percentage points[3] - The projected export growth for China in 2024 is 5.9%, with a cumulative growth of 6.4% in the first four months of 2025[3] - The overall impact of tariffs on China's GDP is estimated to be a reduction of about 0.5 percentage points for 2025[3] Group 3: Policy Responses - The Chinese government aims to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations, with a focus on job stability as a priority[3] - There is an emphasis on accelerating the implementation of existing policies and increasing support for key sectors like technology and consumption[3] - The use of policy financial tools is suggested as a flexible response to external changes, particularly for urban renewal and infrastructure projects[3] Group 4: Market Reactions - The progress in US-China trade negotiations is expected to enhance market risk appetite for Chinese assets, with a rebound in sectors previously affected by trade tensions[5] - The yield curve for government bonds is anticipated to steepen, with short-term rates declining due to monetary easing, while long-term rates may face upward pressure[5] - The RMB exchange rate is projected to strengthen, with the USD/CNY rate potentially stabilizing around 7.1[6]