固收点评20250512：关税缓和下的利率重定价

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since April, tariff policies have significantly influenced global asset pricing, and the trading logic of the domestic bond market has shifted from concerns about liability shortages and monetary constraints to speculating on fundamental changes under tariff policies and expectations of monetary easing through policy hedging. The market trading characteristics and yield curve shapes vary at different stages of tariff games [4]. - The substantial easing of the China - US tariff game alleviates the suppression of the export chain by trade frictions, boosts economic growth expectations to some extent, and may have a negative impact on the bond market. After the release of the joint statement, the market pricing logic may change, with the equity market rising and the bond market facing significant callback pressure [9]. - Currently, the easing of China - US tariff policies and the implementation of domestic growth - stabilizing policies may reduce the "safe - haven premium" of the bond market and increase interest rate volatility and upward risks. The implementation of the central bank's financial policies may lead to a situation of "good news exhausted." The long - term interest rate has risen rapidly, and the market may be sensitive to negative factors [10]. - Looking ahead, considering the potential recurrence of tariff policies and the need to further consolidate the foundation of domestic economic recovery, the bond market faces headwinds. When the 10 - year Treasury yield is in the range of 1.7% - 1.8%, trading opportunities for long positions can be grasped [13]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tariff Policy and Bond Market Deduction - March - end to early April: Tariff increase shock period: The implementation of Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy led to a general decline in global risk assets. Funds flowed into the bond market for safety. Benefiting from expectations of monetary easing and rising risk - aversion sentiment, the long - term interest rate in the domestic market declined smoothly, and the yield curve showed a bull - flattening trend [5]. - Mid - April to late April: Tariff game and waiting period: Against the backdrop of high - tariff policies, market expectations of a marginal easing of the China - US tariff game, the announcement of a 1.3 - trillion - yuan ultra - long - term special treasury bond issuance plan, and the stable policy stance of the Politburo meeting led to a multi - factor tug - of - war in the market. The bond market oscillated, and the yield curve continued to flatten [6]. - Since May: Period of policy implementation and tariff easing signal release: After the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, the market faced a situation of "good news exhausted." With the release of tariff easing signals, the adjustment pressure on the bond market, especially the long - term interest rate, gradually increased. The improvement in export data and the release of the joint statement on China - US economic and trade talks may boost economic growth expectations and have a negative impact on the bond market, causing the yield curve to show a bear - steepening trend [8][9]. Interest Rate Repricing under Tariff Easing - Spread between 10 - year Treasury and 7 - day OMO rate: As of May 12, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yield rose to 1.69%, approaching the key point of 1.7%. The spread between the 10 - year Treasury and the 7 - day OMO rate has significantly recovered. If the long - term interest rate continues to face pressure and the 10 - year Treasury yield adjusts above 1.7%, allocation opportunities can be gradually grasped, with a key point of 1.75% for evaluation [10][11]. - Spread between 10 - year Treasury and funding rate: Since the beginning of this year, the bond market has shown an obvious negative carry phenomenon. In April, with the central bank's liquidity support and policy rate cuts, the spread between the 10 - year Treasury and the funding rate gradually repaired, and the bond market returned to a positive carry state. Under the easing of the China - US tariff game, the short - and medium - term bond varieties still have some support, while the long - term bonds may face adjustment pressure, and the yield curve may steepen in the short term [12].