成本短期支撑仍在，中游库存去化幅度或下降

Group 1: Report Overview - Industry Investment Ratings: Not provided - Core Views: The report analyzes the crude oil and polyester industries, suggesting that crude oil has a long - term downward trend in the price center but a short - term rebound, while polyester will experience short - term high - level fluctuations [3]. Group 2: Crude Oil Analysis Views - Long - term price center moves down, but short - term rebound due to improved macro - sentiment from Sino - US talks and domestic policy stimulus, though the long - term downward path is established [3]. Logic - The short - term high - volatility operation is driven by low current crude oil and refined oil inventories and good refinery procurement. However, OPEC+ over - production will not slow down, and new production in Guyana in Q3 will put pressure on oil prices later [3]. Market Conditions - The market structure briefly recovered, but the spot structure did not improve synchronously. US inventories are decreasing slightly, refinery feedstock remains high, and refinery profits are at a medium - high level, supporting normal procurement [5][13][20]. - Refined oil demand is better than expected, with high inventory depletion of gasoline and diesel, and neutral crude oil inventory, which supports the price bottom - up rebound [24]. Group 3: Polyester Analysis Views - Short - term high - level fluctuations, with limited long - term upward space. The short - term demand exists, but the long - term upward drive is insufficient [3]. Logic - In May, downstream speculative inventory was active, demand is short - term, PTA supply decreases while demand increases, but later high processing fees may reduce maintenance, and high inventory of finished products and raw materials will affect inventory accumulation [3]. - Coal prices are low, coal - based production starts to increase again, supply is high, inventory depletion is postponed, and imports increase slightly, so ethylene glycol will remain volatile [3]. Market Conditions - PX outer - market price is $748, PXN rises to $189. PTA basis increased due to pre - holiday restocking but then fell back. PTA supply is low, and ethylene glycol production starts to increase [29][35]. - Terminal orders are low, but inventory accumulation willingness has increased. Downstream production remains at a high level, but profits are low, and inventory pressure is increasing [43][49]. - Downstream inventory depletion is obvious, but profits continue to decline, and the sustainability of high - level production is questionable, and polyester prices are in low - level fluctuations [51][57].