豆粕生猪：贸易冲突缓和，豆粕现货回落

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The price of DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 decreased, while the price of DCE live pig main contract 2509 also decreased. The price of CBOT US soybeans main contract increased overnight. The trade negotiation between China and the US eases the concern about US soybean export demand, but the soybean sales progress is slow, and the domestic soybean meal price is under pressure. The supply and demand of live pigs may shift from short - term relative balance to looser, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][17][18]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review - DCE soybean meal main contract 2509: The closing price increased by 0.31% to 2908 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The quotes of coastal mainstream oil mills decreased by 20 - 80 yuan/ton [2]. - DCE live pig main contract 2509: The closing price decreased by 0.39% to 13870 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The national average ex - factory price of outer three - yuan live pigs was 14.71 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [2]. - CBOT US soybeans: The main contract increased by 0.72% to 1052 cents/bushel [2]. 3.2 Weather in Main Producing Areas - The temperature in the US Midwest is rising this week, and the weather pattern will become more active. There were local showers in the south last Thursday, mostly dry from last Friday to Sunday, and local showers in the south on Monday. The planting progress and early growth conditions are expected to improve, but if the dryness persists, it may become a problem [4]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - Oil mill soybean processing: In the 19th week (May 3 - May 9), the actual soybean processing volume of oil mills was 1.846 million tons, with an operating rate of 51.89%. It is expected to increase to 1.9085 million tons in the 20th week, with an operating rate of 53.65% [5][6]. - Soybean import cost: On May 12, the import cost of US soybeans was 8764 yuan, up 48 yuan from the previous day; that of Brazilian soybeans was 3648 yuan, up 45 yuan; and that of Argentine soybeans was 3547 yuan, up 26 yuan [5]. - Live pig data: On May 12, the daily slaughter volume of key live pig slaughtering enterprises increased by 0.43% to 123,629 heads, and the daily slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises increased by 4.07% [5][6]. - Other news: As of May 8, Argentina's 2024/25 soybean harvest rate was 45%, behind last year's 48%. Brazil's April soybean exports reached 15,271,913.82 tons, with a daily average export volume up 14% year - on - year. China's April CPI was - 0.1% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month; PPI was - 2.7% year - on - year and - 0.4% month - on - month [6][7]. 3.4 Data Charts - The report provides charts of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and live pig prices, basis, and Chinese soybean and soybean meal inventories [10][11][14][15]. 3.5 Analysis and Strategy - Soybean meal: The US soybean futures price rebounded due to trade optimism. The trade negotiation eases the concern about US soybean export demand, but the slow soybean sales progress may put pressure on the premium. The domestic soybean meal price is under pressure, and the support level of the domestic continuous soybean meal M09 is at 2800 yuan/ton. The supply of soybean meal is expected to be loose, and the spot price is expected to be weak [17]. - Live pigs: The supply pressure may gradually appear in mid - to - late May. The demand is cooling, and the supply - demand relationship may shift to looser, with the price expected to fluctuate weakly [18][19].