对2025年5月12日中美联合申明的解读：中美贸易冲突短期缓和，优势出口行业将直接受益

Core Insights - The recent US-China trade conflict has seen a temporary easing, with significant tariff reductions benefiting key export industries [4][5] - The US has reduced tariffs on Chinese goods, with the effective rate dropping to approximately 44.60%, which is a substantial decrease from previous levels [4][6] - The impact of these tariffs on China's GDP is estimated to be around 0.8%, with a projected decline in net exports to the US of approximately $54 billion [4][8] Industry Analysis - Key export sectors that will benefit from the tariff reductions include machinery products (49.08%), mineral chemical products (26.24%), furniture products (11.16%), and steel products (5.77%) [6] - The reduction in tariffs is expected to lead to a recovery in export expectations for these industries, which were previously affected by the "reciprocal tariffs" [6][9] - On the import side, China will also lower tariffs on US goods, leading to an anticipated increase in imports of machinery electronics, agricultural products, energy, and chemicals [6] Future Outlook - Tariffs will remain a focal point for future economic developments, with the 24% tariff being temporarily suspended for 90 days, allowing for further negotiations [8] - The export growth rate for China is expected to remain high, with the effects of tariffs likely to manifest in the economic data for May and June [8] - The A-share market is projected to continue a "slow bull" trend in 2025, with investment opportunities in technology, green sectors, consumption, and infrastructure [9]