燃料油产业数据月报-20250512

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global fuel oil production showed a monthly decline, mainly due to the decrease in production in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia and Iran [7]. - The Singapore bunker market may have signs of marginal recovery in bunker sales in April, with the Bunker - FOB spread strengthening, while China's high - sulfur imports continued to decline in April, and the demand for secondary raw materials was significantly weak year - on - year [7]. - Global fuel oil prices rebounded from the bottom during the month, with low - sulfur fuel oil performing better than high - sulfur in terms of price and spread. High - sulfur and low - sulfur crack spreads are currently in a high - level volatile trend, and the paper - cargo month spreads in various regions have strengthened month - on - month [7]. - The trading focus in the subsequent market will be on the supply side. Although the shipping volumes from the Middle East and Russia reached a growth bottleneck in April, the refinery operations are expected to increase in May as the Northern Hemisphere enters the peak oil consumption season, which may lead to an increase in high - sulfur fuel oil output, especially from Russian refineries with low operating rates [7]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, refinery maintenance in Brazil and Indonesia in April is expected to end in May, and the low - sulfur exports from these two regions are expected to resume. Meanwhile, the downstream unit maintenance of Nigerian refineries will lead to an increase in low - sulfur component exports to Africa. Considering the recovery of exports from Brazil and Indonesia and the competition pressure between low - sulfur and high - sulfur in the bunker market, the pattern of the Asia - Pacific low - sulfur market may not have a significant upward drive in May [7]. - Based on the improvement in the supply - demand pattern, long - position strategies based on the supply - demand situation may present trading opportunities, and crack spreads and month spreads may still have an upward trend in the future. The rebound trend of the high - low sulfur spread that emerged in mid - April may weaken in May [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Fuel Oil Spot Prices and Spreads - Price and Spread Fluctuations: The FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore increased by 3.77% and 4.77% respectively; the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujairah increased by 1.11% and 3.84% respectively; the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in Northwest Europe increased by 3.18%, and the CIF prices increased by 3.10%. The crack spreads of high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, Northwest Europe, and Fujairah increased by 142.61%, 49.68%, and 101.82% respectively, while the crack spreads of low - sulfur fuel oil in the US Gulf decreased by 20.85% [9][10][12]. - Regional Price Trends: The report presents the historical price trends of fuel oil in Asia - Pacific, the Middle East, Northwest Europe, the Mediterranean, the United States, and other regions through charts [13][19][25][31]. - Feedstock Market Prices: The FOB prices of 0.5% - 0.6% VGO in Northwest Europe increased by 2.04%, and the FOB prices of 2.0% VGO increased by 2.76%. The CIF prices of 0.8% VGO in the Mediterranean increased by 3.42%, and the CIF prices of 2.0% VGO increased by 4.16% [11]. - Bunker Prices in Asia - Pacific Ports: The bunker prices of 380 and 0.5% fuel oil in major Asian ports such as Singapore, Fujairah, and Zhoushan showed varying degrees of increase [11]. - Arbitrage and Grade Spreads: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread, viscosity spread, and regional arbitrage margins are presented through charts, showing their historical trends [57]. - Spot Premiums and Discounts: The report shows the historical trends of spot premiums and discounts in Asia - Pacific and the Middle East, such as the Singapore 380CST transaction premium and discount [59]. - Crack Spreads in Major Markets: The crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in major global markets, including Asia - Pacific, the Middle East, Europe, and the United States, are presented through charts, showing their historical trends [66][72]. - Fuel Oil Swap Market Term Structure: The term structures of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil swaps in Singapore and Northwest Europe are presented through charts [78]. 3.2 Global Main Region Fuel Oil Supply Situation - Refinery Operations in Northeast Asia: The capacity utilization rates of independent and state - owned refineries in China, as well as the refinery operating rates in Japan and South Korea, are presented through charts, showing their historical trends [86]. - Refinery Operations in the Middle East, South Asia, and Latin America: The refinery operating rates in Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE, Mexico, Brazil, and India are presented through charts, showing their historical trends [94]. - Refinery Operations in Europe and the United States: The refinery operating rates in France, Germany, Russia, and the United States are presented through charts, showing their historical trends [97]. - Global Refinery Maintenance Situation: The maintenance volumes of CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units globally are presented through charts, showing their historical trends [99].