铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250513

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Sino - US tariff reduction exceeded expectations, improving global risk appetite. The capital market's risk preference was boosted, and the market pricing mainline might shift from tariff policies to fundamental factors [2]. - The easing of Sino - US trade tensions led to a decline in the demand for safe - haven assets, causing a significant drop in gold prices. Gold is in a phased adjustment, and the adjustment time is expected to be long [3][4]. - The Sino - US joint statement relieved pressure on the global economy. Copper prices are expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation in the short term, supported by fundamentals but restricted by the rebound of the US dollar index [6][7]. - The progress of trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and the aluminum price rebounded. The continuous reduction of aluminum ingot social inventory indicates that consumption still has resilience [8]. - The Sino - US tariff negotiation achieved significant progress, and the alumina price is expected to continue to oscillate and recover due to the improvement of both macro and fundamental aspects [9][10]. - The Sino - US tariff reduction agreement alleviated concerns about the US economic recession. Zinc prices first rose and then fell, and are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term under the stimulation of macro - level benefits [11]. - The lead price was boosted by macro - level benefits but faced pressure at the integer level. There is a risk of a small - scale adjustment after the short - term benefits are digested [12]. - The reduction of Sino - US tariffs exceeded expectations, and the concern about the decline in tin demand eased. Tin prices were driven by the macro - level, and attention should be paid to the pressure of the 60 - day moving average [13][14]. - The smooth progress of Sino - US trade negotiations boosted risk preference. Industrial silicon is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend in the short term due to the supply - demand imbalance [15][16]. - The trend of lithium carbonate prices is unclear. It is recommended to wait and see due to the misalignment of upstream and downstream capacity structure investment and the unclear price trend [17][18]. - The Sino - US economic and trade forum results exceeded market expectations, and the Philippine nickel ore export ban might be implemented in June. Nickel prices are expected to rise [19][20]. - Although the Sino - US economic and trade results were positive, the oil price might return to a downward trend due to the expected increase in OPEC + production and the mediocre demand growth [22][23]. - The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks boosted market sentiment. Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly, although the fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coil are weak [24][25]. - The Sino - US tariff policy exceeded expectations, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate strongly due to the improved market sentiment, although the supply is generally loose [26]. - The USDA report was generally positive for soybeans. Domestic soybean inventories are accumulating rapidly, and the short - term soybean meal futures may oscillate and rebound. Rapeseed meal may follow the trend of soybean meal [27][28]. - The Sino - US trade negotiation achieved significant progress, and the palm oil price may oscillate in the short term due to the improvement of macro - level sentiment and the expected increase in inventory [29][30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Copper - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated upward, and LME copper fell back after hitting 9600 US dollars. The spot market transaction was weak, and the LME inventory decreased to 19.1 million tons [6]. - The Sino - US joint statement relieved pressure on the global economy. The fundamentals still provide strong support, but the rebound of the US dollar index restricts the upward movement of copper prices. It is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation in the short term [7]. 3.1.2 Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 19,910 yuan/ton, up 1.66%. LME aluminum rose 2.15%. The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to decline significantly, and the aluminum price tested the pressure above the 20,000 - yuan mark again [8]. 3.1.3 Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures rose 0.67%. The supply decreased due to factory maintenance and production reduction, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to continue to oscillate and recover [9][10]. 3.1.4 Zinc - On Monday, the main contract of zinc first rose and then fell. The import of zinc ingots supplemented the market supply, and the downstream procurement was weak. The inventory increased slightly, and the spot premium continued to decline. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11]. 3.1.5 Lead - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated strongly during the day and gave back the gains at night. It is in the consumption off - season, the downstream procurement is insufficient, and there is a risk of a small - scale adjustment after the short - term benefits are digested [12]. 3.1.6 Tin - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated sharply during the day and opened high and oscillated narrowly at night. The supply - demand is weak, and the tin price is driven by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the pressure of the 60 - day moving average [13][14]. 3.1.7 Nickel - On Monday, the nickel price oscillated widely. The Sino - US economic and trade forum results exceeded expectations, and the Philippine government plans to implement a nickel ore export ban in June. The nickel price may rise [19][20]. 3.1.8 Precious Metals - On Monday, international precious metal futures closed down. COMEX gold futures fell 3.06%, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.36%. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions reduced the demand for safe - haven assets, and the rebound of the US dollar index also pressured the prices [3]. 3.2 Energy 3.2.1 Crude Oil - On Monday, crude oil oscillated strongly. The oil price has rebounded to near the previous high. Due to the expected increase in OPEC + production and mediocre demand growth, it may return to a downward trend [22][23]. 3.3 Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - On Monday, steel futures rose. The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks boosted market sentiment. Although the fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coil are weak, steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly [24][25]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures rose. The Sino - US tariff policy exceeded expectations, and the market sentiment improved. Although the supply is generally loose, the iron ore price is expected to oscillate strongly [26]. 3.4 Agricultural Products 3.4.1 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the soybean meal 09 contract rose, and the rapeseed meal 09 contract fell. The USDA report was generally positive for soybeans. Domestic soybean inventories are accumulating rapidly, and the short - term soybean meal futures may oscillate and rebound. Rapeseed meal may follow the trend of soybean meal [27][28]. 3.4.2 Palm Oil - On Monday, the palm oil 09 contract rose. The Sino - US trade negotiation achieved significant progress, and the palm oil price may oscillate in the short term due to the improvement of macro - level sentiment and the expected increase in inventory [29][30]. 3.5 Others 3.5.1 Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the main contract of industrial silicon rebounded from a low level. The supply - demand is imbalanced, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend in the short term [15][16]. 3.5.2 Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, the lithium carbonate price oscillated strongly. The trend is unclear due to the misalignment of upstream and downstream capacity structure investment and the unclear price trend. It is recommended to wait and see [17][18].